Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have cut Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak’s lead to 10 points from 15 points in the past month, a new poll suggests.
The Forum Research survey found Hudak’s Tories at 38 per cent — down from 41 per cent in June — to McGuinty’s Liberals at 28 per cent, up from 26 per cent. NDP Leader Andrea Horwath jumped to 24 per cent from 22 per cent and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner was down to seven per cent from eight per cent.
“This election is up for grabs,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in an interview Friday, predicting an eventful 10 weeks before the Oct. 6 vote.
“This is not going to be a walk in the park. The PCs cannot just sit back.”
The interactive voice response telephone poll of 2,256 Ontarians was conducted Wednesday and Thursday and is considered accurate to within 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
McGuinty’s approval rating has increased slightly to 39 per cent from 36 per cent with 61 per cent disapproving of the job he’s done, down from 64 per cent last month.
Hudak’s rating went down to 49 per cent from 53 per cent. More than half of Ontarians — 51 per cent — disapprove of his performance, up from 47 per cent.
Horwath’s approval is up to 63 per cent from 59 per cent and her disapproval down to 37 per cent from 41 per cent.
“She is making a great impression on voters,” said Bozinoff.
The poll also suggests Hudak’s views on abortion may have hurt him.
Forum found 56 per cent of Ontarians think women should be allowed to terminate a pregnancy in all circumstances with 35 per cent agreeing in some circumstances. Only eight per cent are outright opposed to abortion.
Hudak once signed a petition calling for an end to government funding for the procedure but has said he will not reopen the divisive debate, although he considers himself “pro-life.”
“The one thing that can kill the Tories is to be caught out on a social issue and there’s nothing like abortion in terms of a social issue,” said Bozinoff.
Bozinoff said the Liberals have at least three opportunities for the “game-changer” they need to win a third election.
“McGuinty has a couple of cracks at it — they have the platform and they have the debate,” he said of the Liberal manifesto expected in early September and the televised leaders’ debate during the campaign.
“And they have Rob Ford,” the pollster said of the Conservative Toronto mayor who has embarked upon a controversial round of budget cuts at city hall.
“It’s not clear if Rob Ford is helping or hurting the Liberals,” he said. “How that (budget crisis) gets resolved could help the Liberals and hurt the Tories if it doesn’t go well.”
