After eight months in office some people think that Mayor Rob Ford is punching above his weight — a considerable feat. Others feel he has picked all the low-lying political fruit and his implosion is imminent. His boycott of Pride Week was widely criticized.
But what about his personal constituency, the “Ford Nation”? Who are they and what is Ford doing for them? More to the point, what is he doing to them?
Ford’s weakest showing in last year’s election was in the former City of Toronto — downtown condo owners, the “elites” in Rosedale, Forest Hill and Lawrence Park. Compared with their suburban neighbours, they have the highest average incomes and are prepared to suffer higher taxes if it means better city amenities.
A recent Canadian Political Science Association study found that over 80 per cent of Ford’s support came from the old Metro Toronto suburbs. If you accept its “policy voting hypothesis,” Ford’s core supporters are voters in areas of high automobile use. They have the greatest concern about property taxes and maintaining city services. They are “economically precarious residents” with high housing costs relative to their incomes.
Ford’s election platform: “end the war on cars,” “respect for the taxpayer” and “stop the gravy train” responded directly to the visceral concerns of these three overlapping constituencies. His low-tax message clearly resonated with the threatened middle class and lower income earners.
Given this definition of his supporters, how will they benefit from Ford’s war on cars?
They will no longer have to pay a vehicle registration tax. But this modest relief pales into insignificance when you consider the consequences of Ford’s rejection of the Transit City light rail plan, and his insistence on subways.
The Pembina Institute, which studies sustainable energy solutions, says that Ford’s subway plan will:
• Serve 30 per cent fewer low-income residents despite costing 40 per cent more.
• Mean no rapid transit access for the residents of northwest Toronto, who have the lowest incomes in the city.
• Leave rapid transit for northeast Toronto residents in limbo for years.
They conclude by saying, “Mayor Ford’s full $12.4 billion plan, which includes the Sheppard subway, will cost about $4 billion more than the original LRT plan and serve 25 per cent fewer Torontonians.”
Ford pushed a politically compliant premier, and a captive transit commission, to spend most of the province’s funding on burying the Eglinton crosstown LRT. The result? Thousands of Ford’s core constituents will remain car dependant, and stuck in traffic for decades.
Ford’s first budget shouldn’t give his supporters much comfort either. Their taxes will not increase this year. But what service cuts, tax increases and labour conflicts lie ahead for next year?
Few realize that it was the $286 million operating surplus left by former mayor David Miller that made Ford’s tax freeze possible. That money and much more will have to be found to avoid the projected shortfall of $800 million next year.
There is scant evidence so far that Ford can deliver on his promise to “spend smarter and still deliver better customer service to the taxpayer.” During last year’s mayoral campaign, Ford promised to cut the city’s workforce by 3 per cent this year. Instead, his debut operating budget is a record $10.6 billion. It adds 447 new jobs to the city’s workforce.
So much for the public perception that Ford is downsizing city hall.
Ford talked a lot about “stopping the gravy train.” But other than experimenting with private garbage collection and firing the housing authority board, he seems unable to identify major areas of excess spending. He spent a decade on city council but has had to hire outside consultants to tell him where the gravy train is running.
None of this augers well for the economically challenged members of Ford Nation. They are highly dependant on city services. Program cuts are bound to have a disproportionate impact on his supporters. A likely tax increase in 2012 will further stress residents who have high housing costs and declining incomes.
Finally, Ford’s push to have Toronto’s transit services deemed “essential” won’t stop that gravy train either. It allows Ford to sidestep a difficult labour relations challenge since outstanding bargaining issues will be settled by arbitration. Torontonians are assured of no interruptions in transit service. But at what cost?
Arbitration has proved to be an expensive way of resolving labour disputes. Arbitrators pay little attention to the taxpayer’s ability to pay. They seldom roll back excessive provisions in collective agreements. Instead, they are inclined to layer one compensation precedent upon another.
The 2011 “Sunshine List” illustrates the point. Toronto police constables and paramedics make from $100,000 to more than $130,000 a year, plus medical benefits and a defined-benefit pension. Some firefighters earn more than $100,000.
In all likelihood, an arbitrated settlement with the transit union will bring those grumpy station collectors, some of whom are already earning upwards of $110,000 plus benefits and a pension, to new highs of questionable compensation.
How is Ford’s arbitration solution going to slow the TTC gravy train? It won’t. That’s why the union showed only token resistance to Ford’s essential-service initiative.
Those who depend on the TTC and those whom the city wants to attract to transit will face hefty annual transit fare increases. The essential-service designation will severely limit the city’s ability to negotiate higher productivity and affordable compensation at the TTC.
It’s time to drop the bumper-sticker-bromides and level with Torontonians about the tough choices that lie ahead. The Ford Nation may be slow to realize what their mayor is doing to them. But when they do, expect their reaction to be crushing.
