With less than two months to go before the Ontario election, a poll released Wednesday suggests that although Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak still remains ahead in popularity, Premier Dalton McGuinty is narrowing the gap.
The Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Postmedia News, Global Television and CFRB NewsTalk1010 found 38% of respondents think Hudak would make the best premier out of all the of party leaders, compared with 33% who believe McGuinty should be re-elected for a third term. These latest numbers indicate a four-point jump for the premier, an improvement from an eight-point gap a year ago.
Hudak only gained one point.
“While the Conservatives have the edge, this is going to be a tightly fought campaign,” said pollster John Wright. “It’s going to matter what messages and policies either the opposition or the government will take to the people.”
NDP leader Andrea Horwath also showed a three-point surge in popularity, with 24% of those polled believing she would be the best person to run the province.
Green Party leader Mike Schreiner came in at five per cent, down eight points from last year.
Wright expects the poll numbers to sway back and forth once the writ drops in September and the election campaign officially begins.
“The electorate isn’t engaged yet in the campaign because it hasn’t really gotten underway,” he said. “What the numbers are showing is that all parties are still in the game, all parties in the hunt and there is some movement going on.”
In a flash sample poll conducted last weekend on 400 decided voters, Ipsos Reid found that the gap between Hudak and McGuinty continues to narrow. Of those polled, 38% say they would vote for Hudak and the Conservatives if an election were held tomorrow, while 36% would stick with McGuinty and the Liberals.
Despite these findings, the poll also discovered Ontarians are divided on whether they think the province is headed in the right track.
Fifty-one per cent responded yes, while 49% believed no, a drop of 19 points from last year.
Although attitudes about the province have vastly improved, 66% believe “it’s time for another political party to take over,” compared with 34% who say the “McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election.”
According to the poll, Hudak still maintains a slight lead over McGuinty in most positive leadership attributes, including having a vision for the province, managing the province’s health care system and someone who is open to the ideas of others.
Those surveyed also believed McGuinty only fared better than Hudak in one leadership quality: someone who has a hidden agenda. The premier garnered 46% in this area, while Hudak came in at 35%, Horwath at 14% and Schriener at six per cent.
This was a large improvement for McGuinty who dropped 10 points in this poll compared to when the same question was asked last year, according to Ipsos Reid.
“No party should take anything for granted here,” said Wright. “It’s not a stretch to say that any of the parties can form a government. The NDP are in the hunt to, not to run the province, but they are viable spoilers and people are willing to take a listen.”
The findings in this survey were gathered from online responses between July 29 and Aug. 4 from a sample of 899 Ontario residents. The estimated margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
