The geek with a cynical view

Metrojet Flight 9268 (IATA: 7K-9268,[7] ICAO: KGL 9268[8]) was an international chartered passenger flight,[9] operated by Russian airline Kogalymavia (branded as Metrojet), which crashed in northern Sinai on 31 October 2015 at 06:13 EST (04:13 UTC)[10] following departure from Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport, Egypt, en route to Pulkovo Airport, Saint Petersburg, Russia.[6][11][12]

The aircraft, an Airbus A321-231, was carrying 217 passengers and seven crew members.[13][14] Of those aboard, mostly tourists, there were 219 Russians, four Ukrainians, and one Belarusian.[13] With its death toll of 224 people,[13] the crash of Flight 9268 is the deadliest both in the history of Russian aviation[a][15] and within Egyptian territory.[b][16] It is also the deadliest air crash involving an aircraft from the Airbus A320 family,[c] and the deadliest plane crash of 2015.[d][17]

The possibility of a bomb being put on the plane at Sharm el-Sheikh led to several countries ordering their planes to stop serving that airport.

Shortly after the crash, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL) Sinai Branch (previously known as Ansar Bait al-Maqdis) claimed responsibility for the incident, which occurred in the vicinity of the Sinai insurgency.[18][19] ISIL claimed responsibility on Twitter, on video, and in a statement by Abu Osama al-Masri, the groups leader [20] who said “We are the ones who downed it [Metrojet Flight 9268] by the grace of Allah, and we are not compelled to announce the method that brought it down.” [21] The plane crashed on the first anniversary of the group's affiliation with ISIL.[21]

On 8 November Reuters quoted an unnamed Egyptian investigation team member, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the investigation, who said he was "90% sure" the jet was brought down by a bomb, based on an initial analysis of the last second of the cockpit voice recording. Lead investigator Ayman al-Muqaddam noted that other causes, such as lithium batteries overheating, a fuel explosion, or metal fatigue in the plane, still needed to be definitively ruled out.[22]

Contents
1 Aircraft
2 Crash
2.1 Response
3 Passengers and crew
4 Investigation
4.1 Tailstrike and maintenance hypotheses
4.2 Explosive device hypothesis
4.3 Missile hypothesis
5 Disruption to air traffic
6 International reactions
6.1 Russia
6.2 Egypt
6.3 Ireland
6.4 Israel
6.5 United Kingdom
6.6 Airbus
7 See also
8 Notes
9 References
10 External links
Aircraft[edit]
previous livery
previous livery
previous livery
The aircraft in previous service: first with Middle East Airlines (left), then during its operation with Onur Air (middle) and then in previous Metrojet livery with the TUI logo.
The aircraft was an 18-year-old Airbus A321-231, serial number 663.[23] It was delivered to Middle East Airlines in May 1997 with a registration code of F-OHMP.[24] In 2003, it was leased by Onur Air and, beginning in 2007, it was subleased to Saudi Arabian Airlines and other carriers. In April 2012, Kolavia acquired the plane with a new registration of EI-ETJ and transferred it to Kogalymavia in May.[25]

The aircraft was powered by two IAE V2533 engines and configured to carry 220 passengers in an economy configuration plus crew seats.[26] At the time of the crash, it was owned by Dublin-based AerCap and leased to Kolavia.[27] The aircraft had accumulated 56,000 flight hours on nearly 21,000 flights.[23]

On 16 November 2001, while operating for Middle East Airlines as F-OHMP, the aircraft suffered a tailstrike landing in Cairo. It was repaired and went back into service with the airline in 2002.[28]

Crash
The route of the aircraft. The black dot indicates the starting point of the flight; the red dot indicates the last position at which the aircraft was tracked.

Last data received by Flightradar24.com[29]

Flight data received by FlightRadar24.com receivers since 04:12:00 UTC
Flight 9268 left Sharm el-Sheikh airport at 05:50 EST (03:50 UTC)[10] for Pulkovo Airport in Saint Petersburg, Russia, with 217 passengers and seven crew members on board. The aircraft failed to make contact with Cyprus Air Traffic Control 23 minutes later.[30] Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency confirmed the flight had disappeared from radar tracking. There was initial confusion about whether the plane had come down.[31]

An Islamic State group in Egypt said that it brought down the plane. Wassim Nasr, France 24’s expert on jihadi movements, said that the IS group has never claimed an attack they did not commit.[19] Russian media outlets said that the pilot reported technical problems and requested a landing at the nearest airport before the plane went missing, but Egyptian authorities disputed that claim.[32][33] Other sources suggested there were no such requests or distress signals.[34] The Egyptian Civilian Aviation Ministry issued a statement that indicated the flight was at an altitude of 31,000 ft (9,400 m) when it disappeared from radar screens after a steep descent of 5,000 ft (1,500 m) in one minute. Flightradar24 shows the aircraft climbing to 33,500 ft (10,200 m) at 404 kn (748 km/h; 465 mph) before suddenly descending to 28,375 ft (8,649 m) at 62 kn (115 km/h; 71 mph) approximately 50 km (31 mi) north east of Nekhel, after which its position was no longer tracked.[35] All 224 passengers and crew died.[33]

Reuters quoted an unnamed security officer as saying that the aircraft had been completely destroyed.[36] Wreckage was scattered over 20 square kilometres (8 sq mi), with the forward section about 5 kilometres (3.1 mi) from the tail, indicating that the aircraft had broken up during flight.[37] Aerial images of the wreckage broadcast on RT indicated that the wings were intact until impact.[38] The debris pattern, combined with an initial interpretation of the aircraft's abrupt changes in altitude and airspeed, reinforced the presumption that the aircraft's tail separated during flight and fell separately.[38]

Response[edit]
Shortly after the aircraft's disappearance, Eurocontrol issued a notice to all operators along the route that because of technical problems all flights would be tactically re-routed. The notice was redacted shortly thereafter.[6]

Unnamed Egyptian authorities indicated that the first parts of the wreckage had been located.[6] Fifty ambulances were sent to the crash site[36] near Hassana, 300 kilometres (190 mi) from Sharm el-Sheikh.[39] Unnamed Egyptian officials reported that the aircraft "split in two" and most bodies were found strapped to their seats. Initial reports indicated that voices of trapped passengers could be heard in a section of the crashed aircraft.[40] At least 100 bodies were initially found, including at least five children.[41]

Passengers and crew[edit]
People on board by nationality
Citizenship Passengers Crew Total
Russia 212 7 219
Ukraine 4 0 4
Belarus 1 0 1
217 7 224
Flight 9268 was carrying a total of 224 people, consisting of 217 passengers (including 25 children) and seven crew members.[13] Most of the passengers were Russian, according to the Russian embassy,[45] and a majority were female.[46] There were also four Ukrainians and one Belarusian on board.[47] Most of the passengers were tourists returning from Red Sea resorts.[48] The Association of Tour Operators of Russia released the passenger manifest of all those thought to have been on the flight.[49] The majority of the passengers were from Northwest Russia, including Saint Petersburg and the surrounding Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov oblasts.[13]

According to Kogalymavia, the flight's captain, Valery Yurievich Nemov, had more than 12,000 hours of flight time, including 3,800 hours on this aircraft type.[6] The first officer was Sergei Trukachev.[50]

Investigation
Ayman al-Muqaddam, the head of the central air traffic accident authority in Egypt, was appointed to investigate the cause of the crash. In a statement, he indicated that the pilot had made contact with the civil aviation authorities and asked to land at the nearest airport. He suggested the aircraft may have been attempting an emergency landing at El Arish International Airport in northern Sinai.[45] It crashed 35 kilometres (22 mi) south of the coastal city.[51] Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister Hossam Kamel said that air traffic control recordings did not show any distress calls. President of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said that a probe of the crash would take months.[52]

The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations sent three of its aircraft to the crash site. The Investigative Committee also started a legal case against Kogalymavia under legislation regulating "violation of rules of flights and preparations."[53] Kogalymavia's employees were also questioned, along with those of the Brisco tour agency that had chartered the flight. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry promised to work closely with Russian officials and investigators to find the cause of the accident. The aircraft had passed technical checks before taking off. Investigators would also view the security camera footage.[54] Soon after the crash, Russia's regional transport prosecutors determined that the quality of fuel on the aircraft met required standards.[55]

The aviation accident investigation agencies BEA (France), BFU (Germany), and AAIU (Ireland) participated in the investigation as representatives for the state of the aircraft's design, manufacture, and registration respectively.[56][57] The BEA sent two investigators, accompanied by six representatives from Airbus, to Egypt on 1 November.[56] According to the BEA, they joined two investigators from the BFU and four investigators from the Interstate Aviation Committee, their Russian counterpart, representing the state of the aircraft's operator.[56]

Both the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder were recovered from the crash site on 1 November. Russian Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov and a team of specialist investigators arrived in Cairo to assist the Egyptian investigators in determining the cause of the crash. The flight data recorders were reported to be in good condition.[58] On 4 November, Egypt's Civil Aviation Ministry Investigators reported that the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) was partially damaged and much work was required to extract data from it.[59] The CVR indicates that everything was normal until a sudden disastrous event. An explosion or other sudden loud noise is heard very shortly before the recorder stopped recording.[60]

As of 1 November, the Egyptian search and rescue team had found 163 bodies. As the search area widened, the Egyptian team found the body of a child about 8 kilometres (5.0 mi) from the wreckage, indicating that the plane broke up in mid-flight. Russian investigator Viktor Sorochenko confirmed that the plane broke up in mid-flight.[61]

Tailstrike and maintenance hypotheses
Airline officials have announced that they have ruled out mechanical failure, but investigators have still not made such a determination.[62] Natalya Trukhacheva, the ex-wife of co-pilot Sergei Trukachev, said in an interview with NTV that her ex-husband had complained to their daughter about the aircraft's technical state.[50][63]

The aircraft involved in the crash had suffered a tailstrike while landing in Cairo fourteen years earlier.[28][62][64] Some have drawn comparisons to Japan Airlines Flight 123, which crashed into a mountain in 1985, seven years after the plane had suffered a tailstrike while landing.[62] Flight 123 suffered catastrophic damage in mid-air while climbing to its cruising altitude. The crash of Flight 123 was caused by an incorrect repair of the aircraft's tail section following the tailstrike, which left the rear pressure bulkhead of the plane vulnerable to metal fatigue and ultimately resulted in explosive decompression.[62] Reports on the wreckage of Flight 9268 have suggested that a "clear break" occurred near the plane's rear pressure bulkhead, possibly indicating failure of the bulkhead.[64]

On 2 November, Metrojet spokesman Alexander Smirnov insisted that the aircraft was 100% airworthy and that its crew was "very experienced". He showed the certificates the airline had received in 2014. He later added that the tailstrike incident in Cairo had been fully repaired, and the plane's engines had been inspected on 26 October, five days before the crash.[65][66]

Explosive device hypothesis
An unnamed official quoted by Reuters said that Flight 9268's tail section separated from the main body of the plane and was burning, which could indicate an explosion.[62] According to a senior US defence official speaking on 2 November, a US infrared satellite detected a heat flash at the time and place of the disaster, and the US intelligence community believed that it could have been an explosion on the plane, by either a fuel tank or a bomb. The plane had reportedly "disintegrated at a very high altitude." The satellite image also ruled out a missile attack. US Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper said that there was not yet any "direct evidence of terrorist involvement".[67] Some UK news outlets reported that an ISIL bomb was the most likely explanation for the crash.[68]

On 4 November the UK government said that in the light of further British intelligence, the crash "may well have been caused by an explosive device".[69] British aviation experts travelled to Egypt to assess airport security; the UK government Cobra emergency committee, chaired by the Prime Minister, considered their findings.

On 5 November, US President Barack Obama made a statement that the US government was taking the incident "very seriously", knowing that there was a possibility that a bomb was on board the flight.[70] At the same time, flights began to be stopped from and to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. This caused around 20,000 British tourists to be stranded.[71]

On 6 November, the BBC reported that the British government thinks the incident was probably caused by terrorism based on intercepted transmissions between militants based in Sinai. These transmissions suggest that a bomb was put in the hold prior to takeoff. Although the British have not ruled out a technical fault, the BBC reports that is "increasingly unlikely".[72]

Paul Adams, BBC world affairs correspondent, said that Prime Minister David Cameron's spokesperson left little doubt that the British government believed the plane was brought down by a bomb. Adams said that suspending flights both to and from a foreign country and insisting on your own technical experts assessing security demonstrated a lack of confidence in that country's own security measures.[69] Security experts and investigators have said the plane is unlikely to have been struck from the outside and Sinai militants are not believed to have any missiles capable of striking a jet at 30,000 feet.[73][74]

As France 2 reported on 6 November, European investigators had found that the cockpit voice recorder data is consistent with an explosion and the flight data recorder cuts off abruptly.[75]

On 8 November Reuters quoted an unnamed Egyptian investigation team member, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the investigation, who said he was "90% sure" the jet was brought down by a bomb, based on an initial analysis of the last second of the cockpit voice recording. Lead investigator Ayman al-Muqaddam noted that other causes, such as lithium batteries overheating, a fuel explosion, or metal fatigue in the plane, still needed to be definitively ruled out.[22]

Missile hypothesis
In a report by UK newspaper The Guardian, a missile attack was "deemed unlikely" but the report stated that several airlines would avoid flying over Sinai while the crash was under investigation.[62] On 2 November, Metrojet spokesman Alexander Smirnov ruled out technical fault and pilot error as the cause of the crash and blamed an "external force".[76] ISIL's Wilayah Sinai claimed the incident was in revenge for Russian air strikes against militants in Syria, where IS controls territories, along with contiguous Iraqi territories. Wilayah Sinai was said not to have access to surface-to-air missiles capable of hitting an aircraft at high altitude since MANPADS can rarely reach even half the cruising altitude of an airliner, but analysts could not exclude the possibility of a bomb on board the flight.[77]

Egyptian Army spokesman Mohamed Samir rebutted the claims and pointed out that the investigation was ongoing.[78] Russian Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov dismissed the claims as "fabrications" due to a lack of evidence from Egyptian civil aviation and security officials and air traffic data.[79] James R. Clapper, United States Director of National Intelligence, said on 2 November that there was no evidence yet of terrorist involvement but that he would not rule it out.[80] On the same day, a source on the committee analysing the flight recorders said he believed that the plane was not struck from the outside and that the pilot did not make a distress signal before it disappeared from radar. He based his comments on the preliminary investigation of both flight recorders.[80]

Disruption to air traffic
The British government said that all flights due to leave Sharm el-Sheikh for Britain were delayed as a "precautionary measure" to allow experts to assess security. Emirates, Lufthansa and Air France–KLM announced they would avoid overflying the Sinai peninsula until the cause of the accident has been determined. The United States' Federal Aviation Administration had previously told carriers under its jurisdiction to operate above FL260 while flying over Sinai. Germany's Luftfahrt-Bundesamt had told its airlines the same thing.[6] Air Arabia, Flydubai and British Airways also stopped their flights over the Sinai Peninsula in response to the crash. The latter stated that they planned to continue flights over Sinai, although the intended alternative route was not announced. EasyJet initially stated that they would not halt their flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada, but would actively review them; passengers who opted not to fly the route would be re-booked on another flight or given a flight voucher.[81]

Following a significant development in British intelligence,[82] on 4 November, the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) changed their travel advice to advise against all but essential travel by air to Sharm el-Sheikh. As a result all British flights to and from the resort were cancelled from 4 November.[83][84] On the same day, the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) issued an order to all Irish airline operators not to operate to/from Sharm el‐Sheikh Airport or in the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula airspace until further notice.[69][85]

The decision on 4 November by the British and Irish authorities to ground flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh came within minutes of each other.[86] Patrick McLoughlin – UK Secretary of State for Transport – told Parliament that Ireland had investigators from the Air Accident Investigation Unit (AAIU) on the ground in Egypt reporting back to the Irish government, and the British and Irish governments have close security cooperation, indicating how the British government may have been able to gather intelligence about a possible bomb exploding on the aircraft before other countries and took the decision in unison with Ireland to order scheduled flights not to fly.[87]

On the morning of 5 November Air France-KLM announced that, following "national and international information" and "out of precaution", it would not allow hold baggage on its flight out from Cairo that day, causing over half of the booked passengers to refuse to fly.[88] There were an estimated 20,000 British citizens in Sharm el-Sheikh on 5 November, almost half of whom were on holiday and stranded by the cancellation of flights.[89][90] There was soon a decision to allow flights again to UK, from 6 November, to enable people to travel home, but with restrictions and increased security measures. Repatriation flights to the UK were organised by airlines and tour operators in liaison with the UK government. Passengers would be permitted to travel home with only hand luggage, with hold luggage to be returned following a more stringent screening process.[91] British officials at the airport provided extra security and approved planes as safe to travel.[90]

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on 6 November that all Russian flights to and from Egypt would be cancelled.[92][93][94] Most British airlines serving the resort sent repatriation flights out to the resort in order to bring stranded British tourists back to the United Kingdom. On the afternoon of 6 November, Egyptian authorities placed restrictions on the number of flights due to overcrowding in the terminals; as a result only eight of the planned 29 repatriation flights were able to leave on the day with various flights forced to divert or return to the UK whilst in the air.[95][96]

By 8 November about 11,000 Russian tourists and about 5,300 British tourists had been flown back from the resort.[97][98]

International reactions
Russia[edit]
On 1 November 2015, the Government of Russia grounded all the A321 aircraft flown by Kogalymavia. The Russian news agency Interfax reported that the Russian transport regulator, Rostransnadzor, had requested Kogalymavia to stop flying its A321 aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash had been identified.[99] The Russian government also withdrew certification of a competing American-built airliner, the Boeing 737 (including 737 Classic and 737 Next Generation).[100]

Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that the Russian Embassy was following the events.[45] President Putin declared 1 November to be a national day of mourning in Russia.[101]

Egypt
Egyptian Prime Minister Sherif Ismail cancelled his meetings upon hearing news of the crash.[31] He was on his way to the crash site along with other ministers on a private jet, according to the Tourism Ministry.[36]

Ireland
The Republic of Ireland, as the state of aircraft registry, made an offer of assistance which was accepted by the Egyptian accident investigation authorities for the Irish Air Accident Investigation Unit (AAIU) of the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport to send a team consisting of an Operations/Pilot Inspector, an Engineering Inspector and a Regulatory/Operations Adviser from the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) to assist in the investigation. The team flew out on Irish military aircraft on 2 November.[102]

Israel
Israel has a border with the Sinai peninsula, and offered to assist Russia and Egypt with surveillance if needed.[103]

United Kingdom
British intelligence became involved in the investigation.[when?][82] The UK government sent extra consular staff and half a dozen military planners to Egypt.[104] Egyptian President al-Sisi met British Prime Minister Cameron in London.[105] At a joint press conference with Cameron, President Sisi said Egypt would cooperate on improved security measures at Sharm el-Sheikh airport.[104] Cameron and Russian President Putin also discussed the investigation into the crash.[104] On 5 November, the government sent diplomatic staff including British embassy staff and FCO Rapid Deployment Teams to Sharm El Sheikh airport to help British nationals home.[106]

Airbus
Airbus posted a note on Twitter that announced it was "aware of the media reports" and that it would issue more "information as soon as available."[36] They also released a statement on their website confirming the aircraft's MSN and engine configuration.[107]

See also
Accidents and incidents involving the Airbus A320 family
List of accidents and incidents involving commercial aircraft
List of aircraft accidents and incidents resulting in at least 50 fatalities
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Notes[edit]
Jump up ^ The previous deadliest Russian/Soviet air disaster was the crash of Aeroflot Flight 7425 in the Uzbek SSR (Uzbekistan) in 1985, in which 191 passengers and 9 crew died.
Jump up ^ The previous deadliest air disaster in Egyptian airspace was the crash of Flash Airlines Flight 604 shortly after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheikh in 2004. All 148 aboard were killed.
Jump up ^ The previous deadliest air disaster involving the Airbus A320 family was the crash of TAM Airlines Flight 3054 in São Paulo, Brazil in 2007,and which killed 199 people and also the second fatal accident involving an Airbus A321 surpassing AirBlue Flight 202 in which killed 152 people.
Jump up ^ The previous deadliest 2015 air disaster was the murder-suicide of Germanwings Flight 9525 that crashed in the French Alps, which killed all 150 aboard.
References[edit]
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Jump up ^ Graph based on CSV file published at: http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/
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Jump up ^ Brian Rohan; Hamza Hendawi (31 October 2015). "Officials Search for Cause of Plane Crash Over Egypt's Sinai". Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt: ABC News/Associated Press. Retrieved 1 November 2015. Natalya Trukhacheva, identified as the wife of co-pilot Sergei Trukhachev, said in an interview with Russian state-controlled NTV that her husband had complained about the plane's condition. She said a daughter "called him up before he flew out. He complained before the flight that the technical condition of the aircraft left much to be desired."
^ Jump up to: a b Irving, Clive (1 November 2015). "Russia Confirms Jet Broke Up in Mid-Air; Did 2001 Accident Doom It?". The Daily Beast. Retrieved 2 November 2015.
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Jump up ^ "Uh Oh: KLM Not Allowing Checked Bags On Flight Out Of Cairo". One Mile at a Time. Retrieved 8 November 2015.
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Jump up ^ MacAskill, Ewen; Topham, Gwyn; el-Sheikh, Peter Beaumont in Sharm; Quinn, Ben; Sparrow, rew; Moscow, Alec Luhn in. "Russian plane crash: flight recorder captured 'sound of explosion'". the Guardian. Retrieved 6 November 2015.
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Jump up ^ "Russia plane crash: '11,000 tourists back' from Egypt – BBC News". Bbc.co.uk. 8 November 2015. Retrieved 8 November 2015.
Jump up ^ "Dept for Transport on Twitter: "8 flights from Sharm el-Sheikh to the UK today. 5,298 passengers have now returned."". Twitter.com. 8 November 2015. Retrieved 8 November 2015.
Jump up ^ "Kogalymavia told to halt A321 flights after crash". RTE.ie. Retrieved 1 November 2015.
Jump up ^ "TASS: Business & Economy – Interstate Aviation Committee suspends certificate for Boeing-737 aircraft in Russia". TASS.
Jump up ^ Bush, Jason (31 October 2015). "Russia's Putin declares day of mourning after airliner crash in Egypt". Reuters. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
Jump up ^ "AAIU Statement – Kolavia Flight 7K9268 investigation.". Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport Ireland. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
Jump up ^ "Egypt plane crash as it happened: Pilot of Metrojet flight 9268 had reported technical difficulties". The Independent. Retrieved 7 November 2015.
^ Jump up to: a b c "UK-Sharm el-Sheikh flights grounded". BBC. 5 November 2015. Retrieved 6 November 2015.
Jump up ^ "Cameron and Sisi quizzed over Sinai crash response – as it happened". The Guardian. 5 November 2015. Retrieved 6 November 2015.
Jump up ^ "Foreign Office (FCO) on Twitter: "UK govt working closely with Egyptian authorities, airlines & tour operators to help UK natls in #Sharm return home https://t.co/kRGWYspv4d"". Twitter.com. Retrieved 8 November 2015.
Jump up ^ "METROJET A321-200 FLIGHT 7K-9268 ACCIDENT OVER SINAI PENINSULA". Airbus. Retrieved 31 October 2015.

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