Detainees: does anyone care?
By Janyce McGregor
I've been mulling over the latest EKOS numbers on Canadians' interest in the Afghan detainee issue, and wondering about each party's political strategy, accordingly.
What level of interest in an issue likes this constitutes something that is politically (or potentially electorally) significant?
On the surface, it's easy to dismiss this issue with the topline numbers from the EKOS poll -- "nearly half" (actually it's 43 per cent) of Canadians haven't been following the issue, the poll suggested.
But should we really be surprised by that? And what about all the other people who are following the issue -- how many of them are potentially "switchers" -- soft voters who may be moved, based on this issue, to change which party they support?
Let me try the first question first.
Since I started covering politics, nearly every poll I've ever seen ranking what issues were top of mind for Canadians suggested the most urgent political issues were about voters' pocketbooks (jobs, taxes, the state of the economy as a whole) or voters' sense of collective and personal security and well-being (health care, education, crime and justice, environmental issues.)
Foreign policy matters aren't in the same league. You have to go back to the free trade debate of the eighties to find a time when a reasonable person could say a foreign policy issue was moving a meaningful chunk of votes. Before that, perhaps the Cold War era Diefenbaker v. Pearson nuclear missile debate. But most of the time, Canadian politics starts at home.
Knowing this about ourselves, I'm actually journalistically encouraged that 15 per cent of Canadians are following the detainee issue closely. (As for our cbc.ca audience, we have reason to believe this group is even more engaged.) And given how complicated it is, it's perhaps miraculous that another 41 per cent are at least somewhat aware of it.
The political parties know how rarely foreign policy moves votes, which is why they rarely make foreign or defence issues the centre of their platforms.
Party strategists are also smart enough to know that modern politics is becoming more and more about niche marketing -- breaking out the concerns and views of specific demographic groups and regions, and targeting those that are "winnable" with a certain plank. Which brings me to my second question, about whether the type of voter who's a "switcher", or on the proverbial fence and up for grabs next time, could be moved by this issue.
Helpfully, EKOS gives us tables that break out some of these groups in terms of their response to the detainee question. And here's where I think the surface argument that "nearly half don't care" about this issue grossly underestimates the potential importance of the detainee debate.
Who is following the debate most closely?
In terms of voting intentions (and leanings), this poll suggests Liberal supporters are the most engaged in this issue, followed by Conservatives. If this issue is influencing Liberal voters/leaners in particular, that's not good news for Conservatives trying to win a majority, because that majority will rely on moving a lot of soft Liberal votes. There's also a risk of soft Conservative support draining away if the government doesn't succeed in managing this issue properly.
Regionally, Ontarians appear to be the most engaged in this issue. Ontario shows all the signs of being a key battleground in the next election once again, with a lot of close seats up for grabs. More than one in five Ontarians in this survey said they're following the detainee issue very closely.
There's a gender gap in this survey, too -- men are following the issue more closely. If more men become disenchanted by what unfolds, that's an opportunity for the Opposition to chisel away at the softer parts of the traditionally more male base of Tory support.
The other thing that caught my eye was that older (65+) respondents were the most likely to be following this issue -- roughly one-quarter "very closely" and another half "somewhat closely." This is a demographic to watch -- not only because older voters are traditionally more likely to turn out on polling day than younger voters, but also because the Conservatives have had an on again-off again relationship with the older voter lately. When Conservative polling numbers have moved, it's often been because older respondents were reconsidering their options.
All this to say: the number of people not following this issue may not matter so much as exactly who is following it very closely indeed, and whether those Canadians' votes are still up for grabs.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
Ann Coulter on CBC I am not happy!.
Power & Politics' Evan Solomon talks with controversial conservative commentator
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/ID=1451284636
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/ID=1451284636
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Robert William Pickton v. Her Majesty the Queen Supreme Court of Canada 2010-03-25
Supreme Court of Canada
Robert William Pickton v. Her Majesty the Queen
(British Columbia) (Criminal) (As of Right / By Leave)
(Publication ban in case)
Summary
Case summaries are prepared by the Office of the Registrar of the Supreme Court of Canada (Law Branch) for information purposes only.
(Publication ban in case)Criminal law - Trial - Charge to jury - Parties to offence - Law of co-principal - Aiding and abetting - Whether the trial judge instructed the jury on co-principal liability in his main charge - If so, whether the co-principal instruction was adequate and given with proper notice to counsel - Whether the trial judge erred procedurally when he answered the jury’s question without having a clear understanding of the nature of the problem that was troubling the jury and without asking them to clarify the question - Whether the trial judge erred in his response to the jury question and in his subsequent amendment of the “actual shooter” instruction. Whether the curative proviso in s. 686(1)(b)(iii) of the Criminal Code, R.S.C. 1985, c. C-46, should be applied.Pickton was convicted of six counts of second degree murder. It is alleged that he murdered each of the six victims at his farm property in Port Coquitlam, British Columbia, after taking them from the downtown eastside area of Vancouver where each of them was a sex-trade worker. Pickton appealed his conviction and sought a new trial. The majority of the Court of Appeal dismissed the appeal. Donald J.A., dissenting, would have allowed the appeal and ordered a new trial. In his view, the failure of the trial judge to instruct the jury on aiding and abetting and how they might apply in this case was an error of law amounting to a miscarriage of justice to which the curative provision could not be applied.
Robert William Pickton v. Her Majesty the Queen
(British Columbia) (Criminal) (As of Right / By Leave)
(Publication ban in case)
Summary
Case summaries are prepared by the Office of the Registrar of the Supreme Court of Canada (Law Branch) for information purposes only.
(Publication ban in case)Criminal law - Trial - Charge to jury - Parties to offence - Law of co-principal - Aiding and abetting - Whether the trial judge instructed the jury on co-principal liability in his main charge - If so, whether the co-principal instruction was adequate and given with proper notice to counsel - Whether the trial judge erred procedurally when he answered the jury’s question without having a clear understanding of the nature of the problem that was troubling the jury and without asking them to clarify the question - Whether the trial judge erred in his response to the jury question and in his subsequent amendment of the “actual shooter” instruction. Whether the curative proviso in s. 686(1)(b)(iii) of the Criminal Code, R.S.C. 1985, c. C-46, should be applied.Pickton was convicted of six counts of second degree murder. It is alleged that he murdered each of the six victims at his farm property in Port Coquitlam, British Columbia, after taking them from the downtown eastside area of Vancouver where each of them was a sex-trade worker. Pickton appealed his conviction and sought a new trial. The majority of the Court of Appeal dismissed the appeal. Donald J.A., dissenting, would have allowed the appeal and ordered a new trial. In his view, the failure of the trial judge to instruct the jury on aiding and abetting and how they might apply in this case was an error of law amounting to a miscarriage of justice to which the curative provision could not be applied.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Judge won't force US district to hold prom federal judge ruled Mississippi school district violated a lesbian student's rights
Judge won't force US district to hold prom cancelled after lesbian asked to bring girlfriend
Tue Mar 23, 5:21 PM
By Shelia Byrd, The Associated Press
JACKSON, Miss. - A Mississippi school district violated a lesbian student's rights by banning her from bringing her girlfriend to the prom, a federal judge ruled Tuesday, but he stopped short of forcing the district to hold the event.
U.S. District Judge Glen H. Davidson denied an American Civil Liberties Union request for a preliminary injunction that would have forced the Itawamba County school district to sponsor the April 2 prom and allow Constance McMillen to escort her girlfriend and wear a tuxedo.
Davidson did say he will hold a trial on the issue later, but he did not set a date and any ruling would likely come too late to force the district to hold the prom when it was originally scheduled.
Davidson's order says the district violated McMillen's constitutional rights by denying her request to bring her girlfriend and wear a tuxedo, and ACLU Mississippi legal director Kristy Bennett called that a victory.
She said Davidson's order allows McMillen to amend her petition within 30 days, meaning she could sue for damages because she couldn't get the prom reinstated.
Davidson said he denied the injunction request because a private prom parents are planning will serve the same purpose as the school prom. He wrote in his ruling that "requiring defendants to step back into a sponsorship role at this late date would only confuse and confound the community on the issue."
School officials said in court they decided to call off the prom at Itawamba Agricultural High School because McMillen's challenge to the rules had caused disruptions.
Ben Griffith, the school district's attorney, said his clients were pleased with Davidson's ruling.
McMillen first approached school officials about bringing her girlfriend in December, and again in February. Same-sex prom dates had been banned in the past, but she had hoped school officials would grant her request.
"I thought maybe the policy had been in place for a different reason," McMillen testified at a hearing on the ACLU lawsuit. "I wanted to let them know how it made me feel. I felt like I couldn't go to the prom."
She was told two girls couldn't attend the prom together and she wouldn't be allowed to wear a tuxedo, court documents show. The ACLU issued a demand letter earlier this month and the district responded by cancelling the event.
District officials said they felt not hosting the prom was the best decision "after taking into consideration the education, safety and well being of our students." Superintendent Teresa McNeece said it was "a no-win situation."
The 715-student high school is located in Fulton, a town of about 4,000 in rural, north Mississippi. The entire county school district has 3,588 students.
McMillen, who lives with her grandmother and has a 3.8 grade point average, has kept her 16-year-old girlfriend out of the spotlight at the request of the girl's parents.
Her case has become a cause celebre since the school district cancelled the prom March 10.
She has appeared on the "The Early Show," "The Wanda Sykes Show" and "The Ellen DeGeneres Show" to talk about how she is fighting for tolerance. DeGeneres presented her with a $30,000 college scholarship from Tonic, a digital media company. A Facebook page set up by the ACLU for McMillen has over 400,000 fans.
The teen has said repeatedly that gay students should have the same rights as the their straight counterparts, and while she has been praised on the national scene, her words mean little to some in Fulton.
McMillen said she encountered "hostility" from students who blamed her for the prom's cancellation.
Days after the district announced it would not host the prom, local townsfolk posted signs on the high school reading "What happened to the Bible Belt?" and "Why would we condone this?"
Tue Mar 23, 5:21 PM
By Shelia Byrd, The Associated Press
JACKSON, Miss. - A Mississippi school district violated a lesbian student's rights by banning her from bringing her girlfriend to the prom, a federal judge ruled Tuesday, but he stopped short of forcing the district to hold the event.
U.S. District Judge Glen H. Davidson denied an American Civil Liberties Union request for a preliminary injunction that would have forced the Itawamba County school district to sponsor the April 2 prom and allow Constance McMillen to escort her girlfriend and wear a tuxedo.
Davidson did say he will hold a trial on the issue later, but he did not set a date and any ruling would likely come too late to force the district to hold the prom when it was originally scheduled.
Davidson's order says the district violated McMillen's constitutional rights by denying her request to bring her girlfriend and wear a tuxedo, and ACLU Mississippi legal director Kristy Bennett called that a victory.
She said Davidson's order allows McMillen to amend her petition within 30 days, meaning she could sue for damages because she couldn't get the prom reinstated.
Davidson said he denied the injunction request because a private prom parents are planning will serve the same purpose as the school prom. He wrote in his ruling that "requiring defendants to step back into a sponsorship role at this late date would only confuse and confound the community on the issue."
School officials said in court they decided to call off the prom at Itawamba Agricultural High School because McMillen's challenge to the rules had caused disruptions.
Ben Griffith, the school district's attorney, said his clients were pleased with Davidson's ruling.
McMillen first approached school officials about bringing her girlfriend in December, and again in February. Same-sex prom dates had been banned in the past, but she had hoped school officials would grant her request.
"I thought maybe the policy had been in place for a different reason," McMillen testified at a hearing on the ACLU lawsuit. "I wanted to let them know how it made me feel. I felt like I couldn't go to the prom."
She was told two girls couldn't attend the prom together and she wouldn't be allowed to wear a tuxedo, court documents show. The ACLU issued a demand letter earlier this month and the district responded by cancelling the event.
District officials said they felt not hosting the prom was the best decision "after taking into consideration the education, safety and well being of our students." Superintendent Teresa McNeece said it was "a no-win situation."
The 715-student high school is located in Fulton, a town of about 4,000 in rural, north Mississippi. The entire county school district has 3,588 students.
McMillen, who lives with her grandmother and has a 3.8 grade point average, has kept her 16-year-old girlfriend out of the spotlight at the request of the girl's parents.
Her case has become a cause celebre since the school district cancelled the prom March 10.
She has appeared on the "The Early Show," "The Wanda Sykes Show" and "The Ellen DeGeneres Show" to talk about how she is fighting for tolerance. DeGeneres presented her with a $30,000 college scholarship from Tonic, a digital media company. A Facebook page set up by the ACLU for McMillen has over 400,000 fans.
The teen has said repeatedly that gay students should have the same rights as the their straight counterparts, and while she has been praised on the national scene, her words mean little to some in Fulton.
McMillen said she encountered "hostility" from students who blamed her for the prom's cancellation.
Days after the district announced it would not host the prom, local townsfolk posted signs on the high school reading "What happened to the Bible Belt?" and "Why would we condone this?"
Monday, March 22, 2010
n the line of duty: Canada's casualties Updated March 22, 2010.!
Since 2002, 141 Canadian soldiers have been killed serving in the Afghanistan mission.
Four Canadian civilians have also been killed, including one diplomat, one journalist and two aid workers.
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