Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Brace yourself Canada. The year of bland is over. In 2011, we'll return you to your normal federal politics program.

The point often overlooked in the overkill of 2010 Canadian politics analysis is how bland is not necessarily bad.




Any year in politics highlighted by a "fake lake" in the Toronto G20 media centre, a briefly unplugged Parliament and a Liberal leader's summer bus tour can only be good news for Canadian voters sick of paying for a circus on Parliament Hill.



With airport temper tantrums by cabinet ministers, a sole-sourced fighter jet contract and the fuss over Afghan detainee documents passing for major scandals, 2010 goes down as a Seinfeldian year about nothing, at least nothing capable of dramatically swinging voter preferences.



That's why the year ahead appears infinitely more interesting – and this has nothing to do with my hopes for federal fireworks as new host of Power Play on CTV News Channel.



Consider what's on the horizon – and keep in mind the ruckus over prorogation, the end of the mandatory long-form census and Saskatchewan potash takeovers weren't in anybody's crystal ball a year ago, so there are bound to be plenty of unexpected surprises.



It's almost a no-brainer there will be a federal election in 2011, the only suspense being the timing of the trigger pull to start the campaign. It could be the spring budget or, in my view, is more likely to be caused by an unforeseen government move in the fall, but it has to happen.



Given how the Liberals and New Democrats warn the Conservatives are dragging Canada in precisely the wrong direction on so many fronts, it defies belief they'd support the government beyond a third full year in power.



To let 2011 pass without voting them down in a loss of confidence would portray the opposition leaders as perennial fetal position whiners, insisting they'd provide a much-needed superior alternative while allowing the government to deliver a majority-length mandate.



The vote will, if early indications hold, offer Canadians an unusually stark choice at the ballot box.



The Conservatives will favor pro-business income tax cuts and gradual budget belt-tightening against an Official Opposition who believes there's value in spending more on enhanced health programs and pension plans.



That sets up a showdown between big spenders verses even bigger spenders played out to the soundtrack of Prime Minister Stephen Harper demanding a Conservative majority to prevent a theoretical coalition of opposition parties from seizing power.



The campaign cacophony promises to be a deafening mixture of the usual exaggerations and fabrications delivered in particularly nasty form by all sides.



But the oncoming year in federal politics will feature more than dirty election games.



The Afghanistan mission will move north out of Kandahar to the relatively safety of Kabul in July, sending combat troops home and leaving a thousand soldiers behind armed with blackboards and textbooks to train the fledgling Afghan army. Hopefully that will make ramp ceremonies, repatriation services and highway overpass salutes a thing of the past.



Watch out for the mother of all procurement battles in the fall as the Canadian navy and Coast Guard place a $30-billion-plus order for assorted military and patrol vessels. Controversy is guaranteed because the contracts will be awarded to only two of the three large shipyards. Politics will come into play around the cabinet table as B.C., Quebec and Nova Scotia shipbuilders (and their ministers) fight for a share of the economic boost the business will bring to their regions.



On the fiscal front, the first cut of the budget blade will take place in February or March when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty begins the ambitious process of eliminating history's largest Canadian deficit within four years.



This can only be done by deep program cuts which go far beyond any nip and tuck, so hard decisions loom on the horizon. Talk of deficit reduction through slashed MP hospitality spending won't do much unless the books fail to record a lot of high-flying and dining by the politicians.



And so, welcome to the madness of Election Year 2011, a clash which seems certain to happen even though almost every poll has shown voters prefer the status quo of a stable Conservative minority.



Brace yourself Canada. The year of bland is over. In 2011, we'll return you to your normal federal politics program.