msdogfood@hotmail.com
The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Postcolumnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.[7]
In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.[8]
Change of fixed election dateEdit
Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario's power to call an election earlier.[9] As the current government had a majority, the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.[10]
To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of OntarioYasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election",[1] and it came into effect in December 2016.[11]
Prelude to campaignEdit
The Ontario Liberal Party attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their first election since 1999, and the Ontario New Democratic Party attempted to win their second election (having previously won in 1990). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes.
The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions". [12][13] In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens[14] and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election.[15]
According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare, which the Liberal platform promised.[16]
In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025.[17] PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".[18]
Mood of the votersEdit
According to Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for change—such desire being more driven by emotion than by ideology—and one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for.[19] The Huffington Post reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose.[20]
In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a gap analysis on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:
Voter gap analysis by party (February 2018)[21]LiberalPCNDPHighlights
64%
6%
6%
10%
13%
51%
7%
6%
10%
26%
61%
9%
13%
6%
11%
PCs had the lowest proportion of respondents (51%) not willing to vote for them at all, while the Liberals had the highest such proportion (64%)
At 13%, the Liberals' "hard support" was only half that for the PCs
For PCs, the strength of "hard support" increases with age, and older demographics tend to be more reliable voters
Conversely, such support for the Liberals and NDP significantly declines with age, with almost ¾ of those aged 55+ not willing to vote for them at all
= Not voting for party; not considered
= Not voting for party; shared consideration
= Not voting for party; exclusive consideration
= Will vote for party; others considered
= Will vote for party; no others considered
ResultsEdit
Elections Ontario used electronic vote tabulator machines from Dominion Voting Systemsfor counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of CA$32,000,000.[22][23] This election was the first time Ontario used vote counting machines for a provincial election, although tabulators have been used in Ontario civic elections for more than 20 years, and also in a 2016 by-election in Whitby-Oshawa.
The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator.[23]
PartyVotesSeats
Progressive Conservative 2,324,742
40.50%
9.25% 76 / 124 (61%)
New Democratic 1,926,512
33.56%
9.81% 40 / 124 (32%)
Liberal 1,124,381
19.59%
19.06% 7 / 124 (6%)
Green 264,094
4.60%
0.24% 1 / 124 (0.8%)
Detailed analysisEdit
e • d Preliminary results - Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Ontario (2018)[24]Political partyParty leaderMPPsVotes
Candidates2014Dissol.2018±#%± (pp)
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 124 28 27 76 49
2,324,742 40.50% 9.25%New Democratic Andrea Horwath 124 21 18 40 22
1,926,512 33.56% 9.81%Liberal Kathleen Wynne 124 58 55 7 48
1,124,381 19.59% 19.06%Green Mike Schreiner 124 – – 1 1
264,094 4.60% 0.24%Libertarian Allen Small 117 – – – – 42,928 0.75% 0.06%
None of the Above Greg Vezina 42 – – – – 16,191 0.28% 0.19%
Independents and no affiliation 32 – 2 – 2
8,662 0.15% 0.07%Trillium Bob Yaciuk 26 – 1 – 1
8,186 0.14% 0.13%Northern Ontario Trevor Holliday 10 – – – – 5,804 0.10% 0.08%
Consensus Ontario Brad Harness 10 – – – – 2,684 0.05% 0.05%
Freedom Paul McKeever 14 – – – – 2,567 0.04% 0.22%
Ontario Party Jason Tysick 5 – – – – 2,310 0.04% New
Ontario Moderate Party Yuri Duboisky 16 – – – – 2,194 0.04% 0.03%
Communist Dave McKee 12 – – – – 1,471 0.03% 0.02%
Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar 5 – – – – 1,234 0.02% 0.01%
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Queenie Yu 3 – – – – 1,078 0.02% New
Ontario Alliance Joshua E. Eriksen 4 – – – – 804 0.01% 0.01%
New People's Choice Party Daryl Christoff 3 – – – – 633 0.01% New
Special Needs Hilton Milan 5 – – – – 631 0.01% –
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 6 – – – – 626 0.01% 0.01%
Confederation of Regions vacant 2 – – – – 386 0.01% –
Stop Climate Change Ken Ranney 2 – – – – 342 0.01% New
Go Vegan Paul Figueiras 2 – – – – 256 – 0.02%
Social Reform Party Abu Alam 2 – – – – 238 – New
Cultural Action Party Arthur Smitherman 3 – – – – 215 – New
Party of Objective Truth Derrick Matthews 2 – – – – 212 – New
Multicultural Party of Ontario Wasyl Luczkiw 2 – – – – 191 – New
Canadian Economic Party Patrick Knight 2 – – – – 151 – New
Pauper John Turmel 2 – – – – 111 – –
Vacant 4
Total 825 107 107 124 100.00%
Turnout 58.00% 6.70%
Regional analysisEdit
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won by region (2018)PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
Progressive Conservative 11 21 6 10 11 9 4 4 76
New Democratic 11 4 7 2 2 6 8 40
Liberal 3 3 1 7
Green 1 1
Total | 25 25 13 10 16 12 10 13 124
Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)Edit
Date
June 12, 2014 The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor.[25]
July 2, 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.[26]Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.[27]
July 24, 2014 The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.
May 9, 2015 Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leaderof the Progressive Conservative Party.[28]
September 24, 2015 Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury by-election scandal.[29]
November 1, 2016 Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.[30]Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.[31]
January 24, 2018 CTV News reports that Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations.[32]
January 25, 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[33][34]
January 26, 2018 Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader.[35]
March 10, 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election.[36] Fedeli continues as Leader of the Opposition for legislative purposes until the election due to Ford not having a seat in the Legislature.[37]
April 11, 2018 First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance. Doug Ford chose not to attend.[38]
April 16, 2018 The Ontario NDP release their full election platform.[39]
May 7, 2018 First televised debate hosted by CityNews: Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and Wynne[40]
May 9, 2018 Electoral Writ issued.[41]
May 11, 2018 Leaders' debate in Parry Sound.[42]
May 17, 2018 Candidate nominations close at 2 PM local time.[43]
May 26, 2018 Advance voting starts at voting locations and returning offices.[44][45]
May 27, 2018 Second televised debate, moderated by Steve Paikin and Farah Nasser, held at the Canadian Broadcasting Centre in Toronto and aired on CBC, CTV, Global, TVO, CPAC, CHCH and other outlets. Attended by Wynne, Ford, and Horwath.[46]
May 30, 2018 Advance voting ends at advance voting locations.[44]
June 1, 2018 Advance voting ends at returning offices.[44]
June 2, 2018 Premier Wynne concedes that the Liberals will not win the election.[47][48]
June 6, 2018 Special ballot voting at returning office or through home visit ends at 6:00 PM EST.[44]
June 7, 2018 Election day. Fixed-date of the 2018 provincial election.
Campaign periodEdit
IssuesEdit
2018 Ontario election - issues and respective party platforms[49]Issue Liberal PC NDP
Spending
Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024-25
The Province will have a deficit in the government's first year. Based on Ford's campaign promises, economists estimate there will be five consecutive deficits between $8 billion and $6 billion.[50]
An audit will be conducted into the previous government's spending
There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5-billion and $2-billion
Taxation
Proceed with last budget's simplification of rate structure for personal income tax
Maintain corporate income tax at present rate of 11.5%
Corporate income tax to be reduced from 11.5% to 10.5%
Phase out income tax entirely for minimum-wage earners but cancel the $1 increase to minimum wage slated for 2019
Repeal the present cap and tradeprogram
Oppose federally mandated carbon pricing
Reduce income tax rates
Reduce the small business income tax rate
Raise corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 13%
Ontarians earning more than $300,000 would see their tax rates rise by two percentage points, or one percentage point for those earning more than $220,000
Education
Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12
$3-billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions
Replace the present curriculafor sex educationand return to traditional mathematics education
Limit funding to postsecondary institutions that do not respect free speech
$16-billion in spending over 10 years on infrastructure and repairs at Ontario's schools
Cap kindergartenclass sizes at 26 students
Abolish standardized EQAO testing
Give OSAP-qualified studentsnon-repayable grants instead of loans
Remove interest off existing student loans and apply interest that has already been paid to the loan principal
Child care
Free child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income
A sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75 per cent of their child-care costs
Income-based scale for child care:
Free child care for families earning under $40,000 annually
Average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000
Transit and infrastructure
$79-billion for various public-transit projects over 14 years, including:
a Toronto-to-Windsor high-speed rail line
light-rail expansion in Ottawa
cost reductions for GO Transitusers
$5-billion in extra funding for new subways in Toronto
Prioritize the Relief Line
Assure that the Scarborough Subway Extensionto the Scarborough Town Centre will have three stops
Cover 50% of the operating costs of municipal transit services
Build the Relief Line in Toronto
Restore operations of the Northlanderin Northern Ontario
Bring in two-way all-day service on GO Transit's Kitchener line
Construct the LRTline in Hamilton
Electrify the existing GO linesand the Union Pearson Express
Remove tolls on the Highway 412and prevent tolls for the Highway 418[51]
Hydro
Standing by its 2017 plan to defer rate increases through current borrowing
Will proceed to sell the Province's remaining 60% interest in Hydro One
Cut rates by 12%, over and above the Liberals' current 25% reduction
Return Hydro One to 100% public ownership
Reduce rates by 30%
End time-of-use pricing
Environment
Proceed with April 2018 announcement to spend $1.7-billion over three years towards retrofittinghomes for energy efficiency
Divert at least 25% of cap-and-trade revenue to help northern, rural and low-income Ontarians adapt to a lower-carbon lifestyle
Spend $50-million on a home-efficiency retrofit program.
Party slogansEdit
PartyEnglishFrenchTranslation of French (unofficial)
█ Liberal ”Care over cuts”[52]
█ PC "For the People"[53]
"Help is on the way."[54]
█ New Democratic "Change for the better"[55] "Changeons pour le mieux"[56] Let's change for the better
█ Green "People Powered Change"[57]
█ Libertarian "The Party of Choice"[58]
EndorsementsEdit
Endorsements received by each partyTypeLiberalPCNDPGreenNo endorsement
Media
Postmedia Network
The London Free Press[59]
Toronto Sun[60]
National Post[61]
Ottawa Citizen[62]
Ajax News Advertiser[63]
Toronto Star[64]
Metroland Media Group
The Hamilton Spectator[65]
Niagara Falls Review[65]
Le Droit[66]
Toronto Star(Riding of Guelph only)[67]
The Globe and Mail[68]
Waterloo Region Record[69]
Laurentian Media Group[70]
Politicians and public figures
Justin Trudeau[71]
Andrew Scheer[72]
Hazel McCallion[73]
Kevin O'Leary[74]
Mel Lastman[75]
Stephen Harper[76]
Jagmeet Singh[77]
Michael Coren[78]
Jerry Dias[78]
Bernie Farber[78]
Kay Gardner[78]
David Miller[78]
Judy Rebick[78]
Kristyn Wong-Tam[78]
Charles Pascal[78]
Sandy Hudson[78]
Olivia Chow[79]
Elizabeth May [80]
David Suzuki[80]
Unions and business associations
Ontario Convenience Stores Association[81]
Ottawa Police Association[82]
United Steelworkers Local 2251[83]
Elementary Teachers' Federation of Ontario[84]
Canadian Union of Public Employees[85]
Ontario Steelworkers[86]
Amalgamated Transit Union[87]
CandidatesEdit
Candidate nominationsEdit
In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in Ottawa West—Nepean and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings.[88] Both candidates denied these claims.[89] The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation.[90]
In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa-Vanier. Evans is the first openly transgender candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.[91][92]
Incumbents not running for reelectionEdit
Electoral DistrictIncumbent at dissolution and subsequent nomineeNew MPP
Brant (now Brantford-Brant) Dave Levac[93] Ruby Toor Will Bouma
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Grant Crack[94] Pierre Leroux Amanda Simard
Guelph Liz Sandals[95] Sly Castaldi Mike Schreiner
Kenora—Rainy River Sarah Campbell[96] Glen Archer Greg Rickford
Kitchener-Conestoga Michael Harris[97] – Mike Harris Jr.
London North Centre Deb Matthews[95] Kate Graham Terence Kernaghan
Markham-Unionville Michael Chan[94] Amanda Yeung Collucci Billy Pang
Mississauga—Erindale Harinder Takhar[98] Riding dissolved
Pickering-Scarborough East Tracy MacCharles[94] Riding dissolved
Scarborough Centre Brad Duguid[99] Mazhar Shafiq Christina Mitas
Simcoe North Patrick Brown[100] – Jill Dunlop
Welland (now Niagara Centre) Cindy Forster[101][102] Jeff Burch Jeff Burch
York Centre Monte Kwinter[103] Ramon Estaris Roman Baber
York—Simcoe Julia Munro[104] Caroline Mulroney Caroline Mulroney
York West (now Humber River—Black Creek) Mario Sergio[105] Deanna Sgro Tom Rakocevic
Opinion pollsEdit
Campaign periodEdit
Evolution of voting intentions during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign. Plot generated in R from data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firmLast date
of pollingLinkLibPCNDPGreOthMargin
of errorSample
sizePolling methodLead
Forum Research June 6, 2018 PDF 21 39 34 5 1 ±3 pp 2,178 IVR 5
Research Co. June 6, 2018 HTML 20 39 37 4 1 ±3.8 pp 661 Online 2
EKOS June 6, 2018 PDF 18.9 39.1 35.1 4.5 2.4 ±2.8 pp 1,230 IVR 4.0
Pollara June 5, 2018 PDF 17 38 38 6 2 ±3.3 pp 906 (1/3) Online/telephone (rolling) 0
Ipsos June 5, 2018 HTML 19 39 36 6* ±3.1 pp 1,501 Online/telephone 3
Mainstreet Research June 4, 2018 HTML 20.2 39.0 34.3 4.9 1.7 ±1.7 pp 3,320 IVR 4.7
Leger June 4, 2018 HTML 18 39 38 5* N/A 1,008 Online 1
Pollara June 4, 2018 PDF 17 39 37 6 1 ±3.0 pp 1,083 (1/4) Online/telephone (rolling) 2
Pollara June 3, 2018 PDF 20 38 37 5 1 ±2.7 pp 1,275 (1/4) Online/telephone (rolling) 1
Forum Research June 2, 2018 PDF 18 38 37 5 2 ±3 pp 2,349 IVR 1
Abacus Data June 2, 2018 HTML 23 33 37 5 2 ±1.9 pp 2,646 Online 4
Pollara June 2, 2018 PDF 20 37 37 5 1 ±2.6 pp 1,447 Online/telephone 0
EKOS May 31, 2018 PDF 19.3 38.6 34.9 5.9 1.2 ±3.1 pp 990 (2/3) IVR (rolling) 3.7
Research Co. May 31, 2018 HTML 18 38 39 4 1 ±3.7 pp 701 Online 1
Forum Research May 29, 2018 PDF 19 39 35 5 2 ±2 pp 2,602 IVR 4
H+K Strategies May 29, 2018 HTML 19 37 39 6 ±2.5 pp 1,500 Online 2
EKOS May 29, 2018 PDF 19.1 37.9 38.4 3.3 1.3 ±3.2 pp 945 IVR 0.5
Angus Reid May 29, 2018 PDF 17 37 39 5 2 ±3.5 pp 773 Online 2
Innovative Research May 29, 2018 PDF 22 34 36 6 2 N/A 958 Online 2
Innovative Research May 29, 2018 PDF 21 34 37 6 1 ±4.0 pp 611 Telephone 3
Pollara May 28, 2018 PDF 17 32 43 5 2 ±3.5 pp 800 Online 11
Media consortium leaders' debate in Toronto (May 27, 2018)[106]
Mainstreet Research May 27, 2018 HTML 16.0 37.9 39.3 4.5 2.4 ±2.39 pp 1,682 IVR 1.4
Ipsos May 27, 2018 HTML 22 37 34 7* ±3.2 pp 1,241 Online/telephone 3
Abacus Data May 26, 2018 HTML 23 33 37 4 2 ±3.5 pp 800 Online 4
EKOS May 24, 2018 PDF 20.4 34.9 35.6 7.0 2.1 ±3.1 pp 1,021 IVR 0.7
Forum Research May 23, 2018 PDF 14 33 47 4 2 ±3 pp 906 IVR 14
Innovative Research May 23, 2018 PDF 26 36 31 6 1 N/A 1,074 Online 5
Pollara May 22, 2018 HTML 18 37 38 5 2 ±3.3 pp 870 Online 1
Leger May 22, 2018 PDF 21 37 37 5* ±3.09 pp 1,008 Online 0
Ipsos May 21, 2018 HTML 23 36 37 4* ±3.5 pp 1,000 Online 1
Abacus Data May 18, 2018 HTML 24 35 34 5 2 ±1.9 pp 2,824 Online 1
Mainstreet Research May 18, 2018 HTML 22.3 41.9 29.3 5.0 1.4 ±2.02 pp 2,350 IVR 12.6
EKOS May 17, 2018 PDF 23.3 39.1 29.8 5.4 2.3 ±2.9 pp 1,124 IVR 9.3
H+K Strategies May 15, 2018 HTML 23 38 32 7* ±2.5 pp 1,500 Online 6
Ipsos May 14, 2018 HTML 22 40 35 3* ±3.5 pp 1,000 Online 5
Innovative Research May 12, 2018 PDF 27 35 31 6 1 N/A 1,529 Online 4
Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018)
Mainstreet Research May 11, 2018 HTML 22.1 42.3 28.4 5.4 1.8 ±1.95 pp 2,534 IVR 13.9
Forum Research May 9, 2018 PDF 22 40 33 4 2 ±4 pp 777 IVR 7
Innovative Research May 9, 2018 PDF 28 38 28 6 1 N/A 915 Online 10
CityTV Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018)[107]
*Includes support for the Green Party
Best Premier and Party Leader Approval RatingsEdit
DateFirmBest Premier ratingsApproval ratings
FordHorwathWynne
FordHorwathWynneApproveDisapproveApproveDisapproveApproveDisapprove
June 6, 2018 Research Co. 36% 55% 54% 34% 29% 64%
June 2, 2018 Forum Research 27% 31% 17% 27% 55% 41% 34% 23% 65%
June 2, 2018 Abacus Data 25% 48% 42% 20% 21% 56%
May 31, 2018 Research Co. 23% 28% 15% 33% 56% 52% 34% 27% 64%
May 29, 2018 Forum Research 29% 30% 16% 30% 53% 40% 32% 23% 65%
May 29, 2018 Angus Reid 25% 34% 15%
May 29, 2018 Innovative Research 23% 30% 14% 30% 54% 48% 23% 25% 59%
May 26, 2018 Abacus Data 27% 45% 44% 15% 19% 60%
May 23, 2018 Forum Research 30% 33% 15% 32% 51% 43% 26% 19% 69%
May 23, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 19% 27% 57% 46% 20% 24% 61%
May 22, 2018 Leger 23% 28% 12%
May 18, 2018 Abacus Data 26% 46% 42% 13% 17% 60%
May 12, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 16% 31% 52% 44% 17% 21% 62%
May 9, 2018 Forum Research 34% 49% 42% 25% 20% 71%
Major Regional Polls - TorontoEdit
Polling firmLast date
of pollingLinkLibPCNDPGreOthMargin
of errorSample
sizePolling methodLead
Campaign Research May 16, 2018 HTML 27 35 32 5 2 ±2.3 pp 1,871 Online 3
Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018)
Mainstreet Research May 7, 2018 PDF 31.1 36.6 23.1 5.9 3.4 ±2.19 pp 2,000 IVR 5.5
CityTV Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018)[107]
Pre-campaign periodEdit
Ten-poll average of Ontario opinion polls from June 12, 2014, to the last possible date of the next election on June 6, 2018. Each line corresponds to a political party.
Polling organisationLast date of pollingSourceLibPCNDPGrOthPolling typeSample sizeMargin of error
Ipsos May 7, 2018 HTML 26 40 29 - 5 Online/telephone 1,197 ±3.2%
EKOS Research May 6, 2018 Twitter 24.4 41.1 25.6 6.5 2 IVR 2,018 ±2.2%
Abacus Data May 6, 2018 HTML 29 35 29 5 2 Online 1,755 ±2.4%
Nanos Research May 6, 2018 PDF 28.5 41.1 24.3 5.9 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Pollara May 4, 2018 HTML 23 40 30 6 1 Online 1,010 ±3.1%
Leger April 23, 2018 HTML 26 43 26 - Online 1,000+
Nanos Research April 22, 2018 PDF 30.6 42.2 21.4 5.3 Telephone 2,098 ±2.1%
Forum Research April 18, 2018 PDF 21 46 27 4 2 IVR 1,126 ±3%
Mainstreet Research April 18, 2018 HTML 28.2 44.9 21.3 4.0 1.6 IVR 1,763 ±2.33%
Ipsos April 9, 2018 HTML 27 40 28 - 5 Online 800 ±4.0%
Innovative Research April 9, 2018 HTML 29.9 42.5 20.7 6.9 1.1 Online 600 ±4.0%
Abacus Data April 8, 2018 HTML 28 40 24 6 2 Online 4,177 ±1.5%
EKOS Research April 5, 2018 PDF 29.3 43.0 20.7 5.2 1.8 IVR 1,067 ±3.0%
Mainstreet Research April 4, 2018 HTML 23.9 50.3 18.3 5.2 2.4 IVR 1,969 ±2.21%
Forum Research March 29, 2018 PDF 29 36 26 7 2 IVR 728 ±4%
Innovative Research March 20, 2018 PDF 26 44 22 7 1 Telephone 603 ±4.0%
Mainstreet Research March 18, 2018 HTML 26.2 47.0 18.6 6.4 1.8 IVR 2,003 ±2.23%
Campaign Research March 14, 2018 HTML 27 43 23 5 1 Online 1,637 ±2.4%
Leger March 14, 2018 PDF 26 42 24 - 8 Online 1,008 ±3.087%
Ipsos March 14, 2018 HTML 32 39 25 - 3 Online 803 ±4.0%
Forum Research March 11, 2018 PDF 23 44 27 5 2 IVR 923 ±3%
10 March 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party
Angus Reid March 7, 2018 PDF 24 50 22 - 4 Online 807 ±3.4%
DART February 27, 2018 PDF 19 44 24 - 13 Online 962 ±3.6%
Nanos Research February 26, 2018 PDF 30.5 43.5 23.2 2.8 Telephone 502 ±4.4%
Forum Research February 23, 2018 PDF 21 46 24 7 2 IVR 1,005 ±3%
Ipsos February 19, 2018 HTML 29 38 26 - 7 Online 802 ±4.0%
Forum Research February 17, 2018 PDF 24 49 19 7 2 IVR 949 ±3%
Campaign Research February 11, 2018 HTML 28 43 20 8 1 Online 1,426 ±2.5%
Leger January 2018 HTML 33 36 26 Online 996 ±3.1%
Innovative Research January 29, 2018 PDF 32 36 21 9 2 Online 1,027
26 January 2018 Vic Fedeli is appointed as interim leader of the Ontario PC Party
Forum Research January 25, 2018 PDF 27 42 23 6 2 IVR 751 ±4%
25 January 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as Ontario PC leader
Innovative Research January 17, 2018 PDF 35 38 18 8 1 Online 1,040
Forum Research January 13, 2018 PDF 24 43 24 7 2 IVR 1,022 ±3%
Campaign Research January 11, 2018 HTML 34 35 23 6 2 Online 1,544 ±2.5%
Mainstreet Research January 6, 2018 PDF 32 43 18 7 IVR 2,375 ±2.01%
Nanos Research December 18, 2017 PDF 33.5 41.4 20.5 4.0 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Ipsos December 14, 2017 HTML 28 36 28 - 9 Online 829 ±4.0%
Campaign Research December 6, 2017 HTML 35 34 22 7 2 Online 1,495 ±2.5%
Forum Research November 30, 2017 PDF 24 40 26 8 2 IVR 861 ±3%
Innovative Research November 17, 2017 PDF 31 41 19 8 1 Telephone 607 ±4.0%
Campaign Research November 9, 2017 HTML 32 35 23 9 1 Online 1,263 ±2.8%
Nanos Research October 29, 2017 PDF 29.2 38.3 26.0 6.4 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Forum Research October 25, 2017 PDF 24 45 22 7 2 IVR 946 ±3%
Campaign Research October 11, 2017 HTML 32 36 25 7 1 Online 1,347 ±2.7%
Forum Research September 27, 2017 PDF 22 44 27 5 2 IVR 801 ±3%
Innovative Research September 18, 2017 PDF 35 40 18 5 1 Telephone 608 ±4.0%
Campaign Research September 11, 2017 HTML 33 38 23 6 0 Online 1,133 ±2.9%
Ipsos September 11, 2017 HTML 32 39 22 - 7 Online 800 ±4.0%
Forum Research August 24, 2017 PDF 25 40 27 6 2 IVR 981 ±3%
Nanos Research August 17, 2017 PDF 31.2 42.2 19.5 6.7 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Innovative Research July 19, 2017 HTML 36 40 17 6 1 Telephone 605 ±4.0%
Campaign Research July 10, 2017 HTML 31 38 23 6 1 Online 943 ±3%
Innovative Research June 27, 2017 HTML 35 39 20 5 1 Telephone 600 ±4.0%
Forum Research June 14, 2017 PDF 23 44 24 7 2 IVR 1,003 ±3%
Campaign Research June 12, 2017 HTML 30 38 24 7 1 Online 1,118 ±3%
Mainstreet Research May 25, 2017 HTML 29 43 24 5 - IVR 2,000 ±2.19%
Campaign Research May 13, 2017 HTML 37 34 22 6 1 Online 864 ±4%
Forum Research May 10, 2017 PDF 28 41 23 6 3 IVR 1,103 ±3%
Campaign Research April 11, 2017 HTML 31 36 25 Online 979 ±3%
Innovative Research April 5, 2017 PDF 29 40 23 6 2 Online 779
Forum Research March 30, 2017 PDF 19 43 28 8 2 IVR 884 ±3.3%
Mainstreet Research March 12, 2017 HTML 30 40 24 6 - IVR 2,531 ±1.95%
Forum Research February 16, 2017 PDF 24 44 25 6 2 IVR 1,120 ±3%
Mainstreet Research February 12, 2017 HTML 29 39 27 4 - IVR 2,524 ±1.95%
Campaign Research January 29, 2017 HTML 28 50 15 5 2 IVR 676 ±4%
Forum Research November 21, 2016 PDF 24 43 24 8 2 IVR 1,184 ±3%
Nanos Research November 19, 2016 PDF 31.9 39.9 22.2 5.2 0.8 Telephone 500 ±4.4%
Mainstreet Research November 2, 2016 HTML 25 43 27 6 - IVR 2,524 ±1.95%
Forum Research October 18, 2016 PDF 24 43 23 8 2 IVR 1,124 ±3%
Innovative Research September 24, 2016 PDF 33 38 20 8 - Telephone 600 ±4.0%
Ipsos September 22, 2016 HTML 40 35 20 5 - Online 800 ±4%
Mainstreet Research September 18, 2016 HTML 28 43 23 6 - IVR 2,562 ±1.94%
Forum Research September 13, 2016 PDF 25 45 23 6 2 IVR 1,154 ±3%
Ipsos September 9, 2016 HTML 35 37 23 5 - Online 800 ±4%
8 September 2016 Premier Kathleen Wynne prorogues the legislature
Forum Research August 15, 2016 PDF 28 41 23 6 2 IVR 1,097 ±3%
Forum Research July 12, 2016 PDF 35 42 17 5 2 IVR 1,183 ±3%
Forum Research June 21, 2016 PDF 30 40 21 8 2 IVR 1,173 ±3%
Forum Research May 31, 2016 PDF 30 40 21 7 2 IVR 1,172 ±3%
Mainstreet Research May 18, 2016 HTML 36 38 20 5 - IVR 2,537 ±1.95%
Forum Research April 25, 2016 PDF 34 39 21 5 2 IVR 1,157 ±3%
Forum Research March 23, 2016 PDF 30 40 24 5 2 IVR 1,225 ±3%
Forum Research February 29, 2016 PDF 27 44 22 6 2 IVR 1,148 ±3%
Mainstreet Research February 16, 2016 HTML 33 36 26 5 - IVR 2,623 ±1.91%
Forum Research December 20, 2015 PDF 31 34 26 7 2 IVR 1,003 ±3%
Ipsos November 9, 2015 HTML 44 31 20 4 - Online 1,002 ±3.5%
Forum Research November 4, 2015 PDF 30 36 26 6 1 IVR 1,158 ±3%
Mainstreet Research November 1, 2015 HTML 28 40 25 7 - IVR 2,506 ±1.96%
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 30 40 24 7 - IVR 4,610 ±1.5%
Forum Research August 13, 2015 PDF 26 35 33 4 2 IVR 1,001 ±3%
Forum Research July 5, 2015 PDF 26 32 35 5 2 IVR 678 ±4%
Ipsos May 20, 2015 HTML 34.13 32.37 25.19 8.31 - Online 1,002 ±3.5%
Innovative Research May 19, 2015 PDF 34 35 24 6 - Telephone 606 ±4.0%
Forum Research May 11, 2015 PDF 24 33 36 5 2 IVR 1,001 ±3%
9 May 2015 Patrick Brown is elected leader of the Ontario PC Party
Forum Research April 30, 2015 PDF 29 36 24 9 2 IVR 912 ±3%
Innovative Research April 26, 2015 PDF 40 33 18 8 1 Online 1,017
Forum Research March 26, 2015 PDF 29 34 27 8 2 IVR 881 ±3%
Environics March 25, 2015 HTML 32 33 27 7 - Telephone 989 ±3.1%
Forum Research February 27, 2015 PDF 32 39 21 6 2 IVR 996 ±3%
Forum Research January 30, 2015 PDF 37 36 19 6 2 IVR 1,028 ±3%
Forum Research December 20, 2014 PDF 35 36 20 7 2 IVR 1,058 ±3%
Forum Research November 29, 2014 PDF 37 37 17 7 2 IVR 1,054 ±3%
Forum Research November 1, 2014 PDF 40 35 19 4 2 IVR 1,104 ±3%
Forum Research October 1, 2014 PDF 36 34 23 6 1 IVR 1,079 ±3%
Forum Research August 21, 2014 PDF 39 32 19 8 2 IVR 1,229 ±3%
2 July 2014 Jim Wilson becomes interim leader of the Ontario PC Party
2 July 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Ontario PC Party
2014 election June 12, 2014 HTML 38.65 31.25 23.75 4.84 1.51
NotesEdit
ReferencesEdit
^ a b Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
^ Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015, S.O. 2015, c. 31
^ as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
^ "Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission". August 8, 2017.
^ Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
^ Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017, S.O. 2017, c. 18
^ "Ontario Liberals' plan for two new ridings could violate the Charter and cost PCs the election". National Post. August 3, 2017. Retrieved January 13, 2017.
^ "Public Opinion Research: Ontario This Month" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Innovative Research Group. September 2017. pp. 17–23.
^ Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2005, S.O. 2005, c. 35, s. 1(3)
^ Benzie, Robert (June 4, 2015). "Ontario to add 15 MPPs, move 2018 election date ahead". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 25, 2015.
^ Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 7
^ "How a historic Liberal collapse and PC upheaval turned Ontario election into a wild horse race". National Post. 2018-06-08. Retrieved 2018-06-12.
^ "Opinion | The day Kathleen Wynne lost the 2018 election". thestar.com. Retrieved 2018-06-12.
^ Grenier, Eric (April 6, 2018). "With nine weeks to go, the Ontario election is Doug Ford's to lose". CBC News. Retrieved April 7, 2018.
^ Crawley, Mike (April 7, 2018). "11 Liberals won't run in Ontario election, and that's a problem for Kathleen Wynne". CBC News. Retrieved April 7, 2018.
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^ "Veering left is right for Kathleen Wynne". Toronto Star. April 1, 2018. Retrieved April 7, 2018.
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^ Omer, Mohammed (May 30, 2018). "Ontario Election 2018: Poll Finds Half Of Decided Voters Making Choice Based On Party They Dislike". The Huffington Post.
^ Yufest, Eli (February 2018). "Analysis of Voter Support Ceilings for Major Ontario Parties". Campaign Research.
^ Yun, Tom (June 7, 2018). "Ontario's experiment with vote-counting machines could change elections to come". Macleans.
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^ Brennan, Richard (July 2, 2014). "Progressive Conservatives pick Jim Wilson as interim leader". The Toronto Star. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
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^ Aiello, Rachel; McGregor, Glen (January 24, 2018). "Patrick Brown denies sexual misconduct allegations from two women, resigns as Ontario PC leader". CTV News.
^ Crawley, Mike (January 25, 2018). "Patrick Brown resigns as Ontario PC leader after sexual misconduct allegations". CBC News.
^ "Statement from Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown". ontariopca.ca. January 25, 2018.
^ "Vic Fedeli chosen as interim leader of Ontario PCs with election looming". CBC News. 2018-01-26. Retrieved 2018-01-26.
^ "Doug Ford named new Ontario PC leader". CTV News. The Canadian Press. March 10, 2018. Retrieved March 21, 2018.
^ "Ford 'the boss': Fedeli". Sudbury Star. Postmedia Network. March 11, 2018. Retrieved March 14, 2018. Fedeli, who has served as interim party leader since the resignation of Patrick Brown amid allegations of sexual misconduct several weeks ago, will remain opposition leader for parliamentary purposes because Ford does not have a seat in the Ontario legislature
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^ Blackwell, Tom (May 16, 2018). "Ontario PC candidate resigns after private 407 freeway confirms 'internal theft' of data on 60,000 customers". National Post.
^ a b c d "Advance voting begins for provincial election". ctvnews.ca. May 26, 2018.
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^ "Date set for televised leaders debate in Ontario election | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved 2018-04-12.
^ Benzie, Robert (June 2, 2018). "Wynne concedes she will lose Thursday's election, urges voters to elect Liberal MPPs as check on Ford or Horwath". Toronto Star.
^ Giovannetti, Justin (June 3, 2018). "Ontario's NDP, PCs jockey for majority in wake of Wynne's early concession". The Globe and Mail.
^ "Ontario election guide: What you need to know before you vote". The Globe and Mail. May 15, 2018.
^ "Doug Ford's Plan is Furthest Away From a Balanced Budget". CTV News. May 30, 2018.
^ Streck, Aaron (2018-06-01). "Durham highway tolls will be removed if elected, say NDP candidates". Globalnews.ca. Retrieved 2018-06-07.
^ Akin, David (May 18, 2018). "For the Wynne Liberals, the Ontario election has always been 'Save the Furniture'". Global News.
^ "Doug Ford, Ontario PCs unveil campaign bus and 'For The People' slogan". CityNews. Toronto. April 15, 2018.
^ Jarvis, Anne (June 1, 2018). "Ford tells supporters in Windsor 'help is on the way'". Windsor Star.
^ Powers, Lucas (April 16, 2018). "Ontario NDP platform proposes big spending on health care, social services". CBC News.
^ "La plateforme néo-démocrate est enfin disponible en français". Ici Radio-Canada Première (in French). April 26, 2018.
^ Janus, Andrea (May 14, 2018). "Basic income, road tolls for transit part of Ontario Green Party's election platform". CBC News.
^ Small, Allen (May 18, 2018). "Ontario Libertarian Party leader Allen Small shares his views on election issues". Global News (Interview). Interviewed by Tasha Kheiriddin. Toronto.
^ "Of choices we have, Ford's PCs are best". The London Free Press. 1 June 2018.
^ "Our choice for Ontario is Ford". Toronto Sun. 2 June 2018.
^ "Ontario's choice is clear, if less than ideal: A Progressive Conservative government". National Post. 1 June 2018.
^ "The Progressive Conservatives should form the next Ontario government". Ottawa Citizen. 2 June 2018.
^ https://www.durhamregion.com/opinion-story/8629987-change-is-needed-in-ontario/
^ "Ontario voters should back NDP to stop Doug Ford". Toronto Star. 1 June 2018.
^ a b "Opinion | The Spectator's view: Ford PCs say take them on faith — that's not enough". TheSpec.com. 2018-06-05. Retrieved 2018-06-06.
^ Jury, Pierre (June 5, 2018). "Pour le NPD" [For the NDP]. Le Droit (in French).
^ Board, Toronto Star Editorial (2018-05-22). "Opinion | OPINION: Guelph voters should consider making history and sending the Greens' Mike Schreiner to Queen's Park". GuelphMercury.com. Retrieved 2018-06-06.
^ "Globe editorial: For Ontario voters, leadership and vision are not on offer". The Globe and Mail. 5 June 2018.
^ "Opinion | The Record's view: In an era of disruption Ontario voters should seek stability". TheRecord.com. 2018-06-04. Retrieved 2018-06-06.
^ "Editorial: We're endorsing change this provincial election". Laurentian Media Group. 2018-05-31. Retrieved 2018-06-07.
^ Marieke Walsh (4 May 2018). "Trudeau dropping in on Wynne days before election campaign". iPolitics. Retrieved 5 June 2018.
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^ Antonella Artuso (1 June 2018). "'HE'S A STRAIGHT SHOOTER': Mel Lastman endorses Doug Ford". Toronto Sun.
^ "Stephen Harper on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 2018-06-07.
^ "Andrea Horwath, Jagmeet Singh team up at Brampton event to keep pushing NDP in polls". CBC News Network. 21 May 2018. Retrieved 5 June 2018.
^ a b c d e f g h i Coren, Michael; Dias, Jerry; Farber, Bernie M.; Gardner, Kay; Hudson, Sandy; Miller, David; Pascale, Charles; Rebick, Judy; Wong-Tam, Kristyn. "It's Time For Progressive Voters To Rally Around Andrea Horwath". HuffPost. Retrieved 2018-06-06.
^ "Olivia Chow on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 2018-06-07.
^ a b Carmen Ponciano (April 22, 2018). CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/guelph-mike-schreiner-david-suzuki-elizabeth-may-1.4630234. Missing or empty |title= (help)
^ Twitter. 2 June 2018 https://twitter.com/OntarioCStores/status/1002902718929727490. Retrieved 2 June 2018.Missing or empty |title= (help)
^ "Ottawa police union endorses PCs". CBC News. 31 May 2018. Retrieved 31 May2018.
^ Erik White (31 May 2018). "Sault Ste. Marie Steelworkers take flack for backing PC candidate: 'this is democracy'". CBC News. Retrieved 31 May 2018.
^ Caroline Alphonso (10 May 2018). The Globe and Mailhttps://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontarios-largest-education-union-opts-to-endorse-ndp-over-liberals/. Retrieved 1 June 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
^ CUPE https://cupe.ca/canadas-ndp-working-together. Retrieved 2 June 2018.Missing or empty |title= (help)
^ Newswire https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ontario-steelworkers-endorse-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp-684338631.html. Retrieved 3 June 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
^ ATU (PDF) http://atucanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/NDP-Endorsement.pdf. Retrieved 15 May 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
^ "Party overturns Ottawa West-Nepean PC nomination | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved 2018-05-31.
^ "PCs to hold new nomination contests in Ottawa West-Nepean, Scarborough Centre". Ottawa Citizen. 2018-02-10. Retrieved 2018-05-31.
^ Benzie, Robert (February 9, 2018). "Tories overturn two controversial nominations, as they clean house in post-Patrick-Brown era". Toronto Star. Retrieved May 31, 2018.
^ "NDP candidate hopes to give LGBT community greater voice at Queen's Park | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved 2018-05-13.
^ "NDP in Ottawa-Vanier nominate Ontario's first transgender candidate for MPP". Ottawa Citizen. 2018-03-26. Retrieved 2018-05-13.
^ Steve Paikin [@spaikin] (May 5, 2017). "Confirmed: speaker @DaveLevac announces he won't seek re-election in June 2018" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ a b c Benzie, Robert (April 5, 2018). "Liberal cabinet ministers Michael Chan and Tracy MacCharles, MPP Grant Crack say they are retiring". Toronto Star.
^ a b "Two more Wynne cabinet ministers say they won't run again in next June's Ontario election" (Press release). Toronto Star. October 6, 2017.
^ "Kenora-Rainy River candidates starting to come out of woodwork". cbc.ca. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
^ Michael Harris (2018-04-07). ""Please see my statement below:"". Twitter.com. Retrieved 2018-05-19.
^ Steve Paikin [@spaikin] (April 25, 2018). "Veteran @OntLiberal MPP harinder takhar announces he won't run again" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ "Brad Duguid won't run in 2018 provincial election" (Press release). Toronto Star. September 8, 2017.
^ "Former PC leader Patrick Brown not running in Ontario election". CBC News. Retrieved 2018-03-16.
^ Forsyth, Paul (January 3, 2018). "Cindy Forster pledges to keep fighting for causes she believes in". niagarathisweek.com. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
^ nurun.com. "UPDATED: Cindy Forster calling it quits". St. Catharines Standard. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
^ "Monte Kwinter MPP for York Centre not seeking re-election in 2018" (Press release). Ontario Liberal Party. July 20, 2017.
^ "Julia Munro announces Intention to Retire" (PDF). juliamunrompp.com. March 21, 2017.
^ Geoff Zochodne [@GeoffZochodne] (July 10, 2017). "Longtime Liberal @MarioSergioMPP is hanging them up" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ "The third and final televised debate of the provincial election campaign in Toronto". CBC Television. May 27, 2018.
^ a b "Ontario Provincial Election 2018: CityNews Leaders' Debate". CityTV. May 7, 2018.
External linksEdit
Elections Ontario
