Conservatives and New Democrats Remain Practically Even in Canada
With Justin Trudeau as leader, the Liberal Party would become the top choice for Canadian decided voters.The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,012 Canadian adults also found that, with Justin Trudeau as leader, the federal Liberal Party stands to become the top-ranked political force in the country.
Voting Intention
Across Canada, 35 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+1 since June) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a federal election were held tomorrow. The New Democrats are a close second (33%, -2), followed by the Liberal Party (19%, =), the Green Party (6%, +1) and the Bloc Québécois (6%, =).
The Tories have their best showing in Alberta (55%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (57%), while the NDP remains dominant in Quebec (40%, with the Bloc a distant second at 23%). In British Columbia, the Conservatives are ahead with 43 per cent, followed by the New Democrats with 30 per cent and a surging Green Party at 16 per cent. The Grits get their best numbers in Atlantic Canada (29%) and Ontario (23%).
The Conservatives have a four-point lead over the NDP among male voters (36% to 32%), and the two main parties are even among female voters (33% each). The Tories are ahead among respondents aged 55 and over (36%) and those aged 35-to-54 (38%), while the NDP is the top choice for voters aged 18-to-34 (37%).
Both the Conservatives and the NDP are holding on to four-in-five voters who supported them in the May 2011 federal election, with retention rates of 82 per cent and 80 per cent respectively. The Liberals keep two thirds of their supporters (65%), with one-in-five (21%) now saying they would vote for the NDP.
Approval and Momentum
Once again, New Democratic Party (NDP) and Official Opposition leader Thomas Mulcair posted the highest approval rating at 44 per cent, followed by Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper (37%), Green Party leader Elizabeth May (35%) and interim Liberal Party leader Bob Rae (32%).
Harper’s approval rating is highest in the Western Provinces, while Mulcair gets a positive review from three-in-five Quebecers (61%). Almost half of British Columbians (47%) approve of the way May is handling her duties—her best rating across the country.
Liberal Party Leadership
Seven of the Liberal Party leadership hopefuls currently have a low level of recognition among the public, with more than four-in-five Canadians saying they are not sure if they would be good choices to command the Grits. Justin Trudeau is seen as a positive option by 45 per cent of respondents. The only other contenders in double digits on this question are Marc Garneau (31%) and Martha Hall Findlay (12%).
Respondents were asked how they would vote in a federal election under three different Liberal leaders. Hall Findlay does not raise the fortunes of the Grits among decided voters (19%, trailing the NDP at 29% and the Tories at 33%). Garneau fares better, taking the Liberals to 24 per cent (three points behind the New Democrats, and eight points behind the Conservatives).
With Trudeau as Leader, the Liberals garner the backing of 42 per cent of decided voters, pushing the Tories to a distant second place (26%) and the NDP to third (19%).
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)