OTTAWA - The Liberals made modest gains on the Tories at the end of the federal election campaign's first week, but could face an uphill battle in the key battleground around Toronto, a new poll suggests.
The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll put the Conservatives at 35 per cent support, ahead of the Liberals at 28 per cent. The NDP was at 17 per cent, while the Bloc Quebecois stood at 10 per cent and the Greens at eight.
The results are almost identical to the federal election standings that delivered a Conservative minority government in 2008.
The telephone survey of 1,000 people was conducted between Thursday and Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Harris-Decima's two-week sampling of voter intention, which wrapped up Sunday, gave the Conservatives the support of 37 per cent of respondents, 11 points better than the Liberals.
That survey of 2,000 respondents carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Those results offer partial support for the notion that the Liberals had a fairly good start to the campaign, said Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg.
Voters may also be warming up — albeit modestly — to Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, he added.
"Perhaps even more encouraging for the Liberals is the fact that their leader, Michael Ignatieff — while still having the highest 'unfavourable' ratings of all of the five federal leaders — has improved his favourable ratings," said Gregg.
The number of people who view Ignatieff favourably has increased to 37 per cent, up from 25 per cent in February, his highest 'favourable' number since September 2009.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's 'unfavourable' rating increased by nine points to 52 per cent, up from 43 per cent in February. That's Harper's highest unfavourable ranking since the start of the last federal election in September 2008.
"When you look below the surface, however, it is clear that it would be wildly premature for the Liberals to start popping the champagne corks at this point in the campaign," Gregg said.
That's because the Liberal hold on Toronto is slipping, with the Conservatives opening up a wide lead in the so-called 905 suburban ridings that ring the city. If the Tories are able to pick up seats in 905, so named for its telephone area code, that could give them their much-coveted majority.
In the 905 ridings, Harris-Decima's two-week sampling of vote intention put the Conservatives at 42 per cent and the Liberals at 32 per cent. The NDP and Greens trailed at 14 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively.
"The Liberal fortress of Toronto is now perilously close to being breached by the Conservatives, who have been solidly polling in the 30-plus per cent range for all of 2011," Gregg said.
In the 416 ridings of Toronto itself, the Liberals had a slim 42-37 lead over the Conservatives with the NDP at 16 per cent, and the Greens at five.
Across Ontario, the Tories led the Liberals 43-34 in the most recent Sunday-to-Thursday polling, with the NDP at 14 per cent, and the Greens at eight.
That's only a modest shift from the two-week sampling that gave the Tories a 41-33 lead, with the NDP and Greens at 17-per cent and eight-per-cent respectively.
"The Liberals still have a long way to go to before even neutralizing the huge advantage the Conservatives had going into this election," Gregg said.
The historic Liberal advantage among women has all but disappeared and they now trail the Conservatives among men by 18 points, he added.
For more information about the survey, visit http://www.harrisdecima.ca./
Respondents were asked: "If a federal election were being held tomorrow, who do you think you would be voting for in your area?"
