Conservatives Drop Back, Lead Liberals by Six Points in Canada
Electoral race tightens dramatically in Ontario, with Tories and Grits separated by just two points.
The Conservative Party is holding on to the top spot in Canada, but has lost points in the new year, a new Vision Critical / Angus Reid poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,008 Canadian adults, 34 per cent of respondents (-3 since December) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.
The Liberal Party is second with 28 per cent (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17 per cent (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent (+1), and the Green Party with eight per cent (+1).
While the Tories and the NDP are now below their final tally in the 2008 election, the Grits, the Bloc and the Greens are ahead of their result in the last federal ballot.
Regional Breakdowns
The Tories maintain their dominance in Alberta (65%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (44%). In British Columbia, two-in-five decided voters would support the governing party (42%), followed by the NDP (25%) and the Liberals (21%).
The biggest change has come in Ontario, where the 13-point Tory lead observed in December has become a statistical tie (Conservatives 38%, Liberals 36%). In Quebec, the Bloc remains ahead with 43 per cent, followed by the three federalist parties (Lib. 22%, NDP 15%, Con. 13%).
Support for the Liberals is practically the same among men (29%) and women (27%), while a noticeable gender gap continues with the Tories. Almost two-in-five decided male voters (38%) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding, but only 29 per cent of women would join them.
The Conservatives dominate with voters aged 55 and over (42%), but are now tied with the Liberals among voters aged 35 to 54 (both at 32 per cent).
Approval and Momentum
There was little movement in these questions, with Conservative leader and Prime Minister Stephen Harper maintaining an approval rating of 26 per cent. NDP leader Jack Layton gained a point to tie Harper at 26 per cent, while Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff dropped to 12 per cent. Layton keeps the best momentum score of the three leaders at -3, followed by Harper with -18 and Ignatieff with -20.
Legislatures
Overall approval for the House of Commons fell by six points since December to 27 per cent, with disapproval rising four points to 47 per cent. The Senate keeps lower numbers, with just 18 per cent of respondents (-5 since December) approving of its actions. One-in-four Canadians (25%) are satisfied with the way their provincial legislature is performing, down five points in a month.
Analysis
The start of 2011 did not provide a boost to the Conservative Party, with a noticeable drop across the country and in Ontario—the key battleground for the next federal election. The current gender and age gaps would not allow the Tories to get a majority mandate in a snap election.
The Liberals are performing better than in 2008, but the approval rating for Michael Ignatieff remains low. The NDP has not reached the 20 per cent mark since July, and is having a difficult time connecting with middle-aged voters. The two parties that did better this month are the Bloc and the Greens, particularly among young voters.
The latest editions of the Canadian Political Pulse can be accessed here:
January 2010 / February 2010 / March 2010 / April 2010 / May 2010 / July 2010 / August 2010 / September 2010 / October 2010 / December 2010
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)