Detainees: does anyone care?
By Janyce McGregor
I've been mulling over the latest EKOS numbers on Canadians' interest in the Afghan detainee issue, and wondering about each party's political strategy, accordingly.
What level of interest in an issue likes this constitutes something that is politically (or potentially electorally) significant?
On the surface, it's easy to dismiss this issue with the topline numbers from the EKOS poll -- "nearly half" (actually it's 43 per cent) of Canadians haven't been following the issue, the poll suggested.
But should we really be surprised by that? And what about all the other people who are following the issue -- how many of them are potentially "switchers" -- soft voters who may be moved, based on this issue, to change which party they support?
Let me try the first question first.
Since I started covering politics, nearly every poll I've ever seen ranking what issues were top of mind for Canadians suggested the most urgent political issues were about voters' pocketbooks (jobs, taxes, the state of the economy as a whole) or voters' sense of collective and personal security and well-being (health care, education, crime and justice, environmental issues.)
Foreign policy matters aren't in the same league. You have to go back to the free trade debate of the eighties to find a time when a reasonable person could say a foreign policy issue was moving a meaningful chunk of votes. Before that, perhaps the Cold War era Diefenbaker v. Pearson nuclear missile debate. But most of the time, Canadian politics starts at home.
Knowing this about ourselves, I'm actually journalistically encouraged that 15 per cent of Canadians are following the detainee issue closely. (As for our cbc.ca audience, we have reason to believe this group is even more engaged.) And given how complicated it is, it's perhaps miraculous that another 41 per cent are at least somewhat aware of it.
The political parties know how rarely foreign policy moves votes, which is why they rarely make foreign or defence issues the centre of their platforms.
Party strategists are also smart enough to know that modern politics is becoming more and more about niche marketing -- breaking out the concerns and views of specific demographic groups and regions, and targeting those that are "winnable" with a certain plank. Which brings me to my second question, about whether the type of voter who's a "switcher", or on the proverbial fence and up for grabs next time, could be moved by this issue.
Helpfully, EKOS gives us tables that break out some of these groups in terms of their response to the detainee question. And here's where I think the surface argument that "nearly half don't care" about this issue grossly underestimates the potential importance of the detainee debate.
Who is following the debate most closely?
In terms of voting intentions (and leanings), this poll suggests Liberal supporters are the most engaged in this issue, followed by Conservatives. If this issue is influencing Liberal voters/leaners in particular, that's not good news for Conservatives trying to win a majority, because that majority will rely on moving a lot of soft Liberal votes. There's also a risk of soft Conservative support draining away if the government doesn't succeed in managing this issue properly.
Regionally, Ontarians appear to be the most engaged in this issue. Ontario shows all the signs of being a key battleground in the next election once again, with a lot of close seats up for grabs. More than one in five Ontarians in this survey said they're following the detainee issue very closely.
There's a gender gap in this survey, too -- men are following the issue more closely. If more men become disenchanted by what unfolds, that's an opportunity for the Opposition to chisel away at the softer parts of the traditionally more male base of Tory support.
The other thing that caught my eye was that older (65+) respondents were the most likely to be following this issue -- roughly one-quarter "very closely" and another half "somewhat closely." This is a demographic to watch -- not only because older voters are traditionally more likely to turn out on polling day than younger voters, but also because the Conservatives have had an on again-off again relationship with the older voter lately. When Conservative polling numbers have moved, it's often been because older respondents were reconsidering their options.
All this to say: the number of people not following this issue may not matter so much as exactly who is following it very closely indeed, and whether those Canadians' votes are still up for grabs.