OTTAWA — As federal political parties gear up for a possible spring election, a new poll has found that while Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s governing Conservatives remain ahead of their rivals in public favour, they have lost momentum in recent weeks.
The national survey by Ipsos Reid — conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV — comes amid a torrent of political jockeying in recent days; as MPs returned to Parliament, some parties aired political attack ads and the leaders argued over the merits of corporate tax cuts.
The poll, conducted from Jan. 20 to Feb. 2, found the Conservatives are supported by 34 per cent of decided voters — down five points from another Ipsos Reid survey in early December. By comparison, Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals remain at 29 per cent of the decided vote — a spot where they have stayed frozen since last September.
The NDP, led by Jack Layton, would garner 16 per cent of the vote — up by four points since the poll two months ago.
This turnaround comes as good news for Layton, who was plagued by internal party turmoil last fall over issues such as the gun registry.
Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc Quebecois has 11 per cent of the vote nationally, but within its own province, the party has a commanding lead.
The Green party, led by Elizabeth May, would receive 10 per cent of the vote — up by one point.
Across Canada’s regions, however, it’s a mixed bag for the parties.
The Liberals have regained a slight lead in seat-rich Ontario, where they are trying to prevent electoral gains by the Tories — most notably in Toronto.
In Quebec, with the Bloc so far ahead, the federalist parties are splitting the vote fairly evenly.
In the West, while the Tories remain comfortably ahead, they are beginning to lose support in their bastion of Alberta, with votes also trickling away in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. On the other hand, in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have now have taken the lead away from the Liberals.
Ipsos Reid President Darrell Bricker said Thursday that the new poll shows a return to Canadians’ voting intentions that were locked in a stagnant pattern.
“If you thought that the Tories were on a roll, it was a will-o-the-wisp,”said Bricker. “What these numbers show is that whenever an election comes our way, it’s is going to be a tough-fought battle.”
Instead of resembling a “Napoleonic” battle, Bricker said the campaign will consist of “little skirmishes across the country” — noting the Tories stand to gain or lose a couple of seats near Quebec City, while some seats are “up for grabs” in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.
“But where’s the battleground? Take your car, drive down Highway 401 all the way from Ottawa to Windsor. That’s where it is. You fight the campaign on a bus,” he said, referring to the ridings in central Ontario.
The poll suggests that Harper’s Tories may have been benefiting from a pre-Christmas sense among voters that things were going well, and they may have been left with an “edgy taste” in more recent weeks as the political debate ramped up, Bricker said.
The political gamesmanship grew more intense in January.
Harper said he wants to focus on governing and avoid an election, but his party aired attack ads that question the character of the other political leaders.
Ignatieff and Layton launched public-speaking tours outlining their demands for what should be in the next budget, with the Liberals also firing back with their own ads attacking the government’s position on corporate tax cuts and military fighter jets.
The Bloc said it won’t support the government unless it provides billions of dollars for Quebec.
Meanwhile, the budget will be tabled in March and if all three opposition parties vote against it, Canadians will head to the polls in the spring.
Bricker said the two main rivals are “plagued” with problems that won’t disappear: The Tories are led by a prime minister given credit by voters for solid economic management, but whose personality still hasn’t won over more supporters. And they can’t crack the 40-per-cent support level, which is seen as necessary for winning a majority government.
The Liberals, meantime, can’t crack the 30-per-cent threshold and are led by someone who simply hasn’t caught on with the electorate, said Bricker.
“As long as the players stay the same, the issues stay the same, the results will be the same. All of them are plagued by this.”
The poll finds that in Ontario, the Liberals have pulled ahead with 40 per cent, compared to 36 per cent for the Tories, 15 per cent for the NDP and eight per cent for the Green party.
In Quebec, the Bloc is supported by 42 per cent of decided voters, with the Liberals at 16 per cent, the Tories at 15 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, and the Green party at 12 per cent.
In B.C., the Tories have 42 per cent of the vote, compared to 25 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Green party.
In Alberta, the Tories hold 56 per cent, while the Liberals have 22 per cent, the NDP have 11 per cent and the Green party has eight per cent.
In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are ahead at 42 per cent, while the Liberals have 30 per cent, the NDP has 19 per cent and the Green party has eight per cent.
In the Atlantic region, the Tories have pulled ahead with 38 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34 per cent, the NDP at 22 per cent and the Green party at six per cent.
The poll was a telephone survey of 1,008 adult Canadians and its national results have a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The margin of error for the regional results are: B.C. (nine per cent); Alberta (9.8 per cent); Manitoba/Saskatchewan (12.1 per cent); Ontario (4.9 per cent); Quebec (6.2 per cent); Atlantic Canada (12.1 per cent).
Read more: http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/03/tories-losing-momentum-for-possible-vote-poll/#ixzz1Cy0QgPU9
